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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Friday, July 22, 2022

SPC Jul 22, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible Sunday over the Ohio Valley and portions of the mid-Missouri Valley and northeast U.S. ...Mid-Missouri Valley/Ohio Valley/Northeast... An upper trough will continue moving east across the Great Lakes/northeast U.S. on Sunday as a surface cold front also moves east across the region. A seasonably moist air mass will exist in advance of the front with dew points in the 60s/lower 70s. Modest mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE ranging from 1000-2000 J/kg. Southwest to west low/mid-level flow will result in effective shear values averaging 30 to 40 kts, supporting some risk for organized storms capable of strong/damaging gusts and perhaps hail. Primary uncertainties include the degree of destabilization in advance of the cold front and thunderstorm coverage along and in advance of the cold front. These uncertainties preclude higher severe probabilities with this outlook, although Slight Risk probabilities may eventually be warranted over portions of the current Marginal Risk area. ..Bunting.. 07/22/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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