SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST AND OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible Sunday over the
Ohio Valley and portions of the mid-Missouri Valley and northeast
U.S.
...Mid-Missouri Valley/Ohio Valley/Northeast...
An upper trough will continue moving east across the Great
Lakes/northeast U.S. on Sunday as a surface cold front also moves
east across the region. A seasonably moist air mass will exist in
advance of the front with dew points in the 60s/lower 70s. Modest
mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE ranging from
1000-2000 J/kg. Southwest to west low/mid-level flow will result in
effective shear values averaging 30 to 40 kts, supporting some risk
for organized storms capable of strong/damaging gusts and perhaps
hail. Primary uncertainties include the degree of destabilization
in advance of the cold front and thunderstorm coverage along and in
advance of the cold front. These uncertainties preclude higher
severe probabilities with this outlook, although Slight Risk
probabilities may eventually be warranted over portions of the
current Marginal Risk area.
..Bunting.. 07/22/2022
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