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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Thursday, July 21, 2022

SPC Jul 21, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough should continue moving eastward from the Great Lakes across the Northeast on Day 4/Sunday. A surface cold front associated with this upper trough should likewise progress eastward over parts of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and OH Valley through Sunday evening. Some severe threat may exist with thunderstorms that can form along/ahead of the cold front. However, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty with how unstable the warm sector will become, and the coverage/placement of this potentially severe convection. Will defer possible inclusion of a 15% severe area to a later outlook, but at least low severe probabilities may be needed from parts of the OH Valley into the Northeast on Sunday. An upper trough/low should persist over parts of eastern Canada into the Northeast/Great Lakes on Day 5/Monday. Any lingering severe threat should be confined to portions of the eastern states ahead of a cold front. Confidence in a corridor of greater severe potential Monday afternoon/evening ahead of the front remains too low for a 15% severe delineation at this time. From Day 6/Tuesday onward, most medium-range guidance suggests that an upper ridge that has been persistently centered over much of the southern CONUS will be suppressed by an upper trough forecast to develop southeastward from central Canada across the north-central states. Some severe risk associated with this feature may exist across portions of the central CONUS from Day 6/Tuesday through Day 8/Thursday. But, predictability regarding the amplitude and placement of the upper trough, along with related surface features, remains limited at this extended time frame. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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