SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0411 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND EXTREME NORTHEAST
IOWA...
CORRECTED FOR WIND GRAPHIC
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms should occur Saturday across parts of the Upper
Midwest. A few tornadoes, large to very large hail, and significant
damaging winds all appear possible.
...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes...
A pronounced shortwave trough currently over the Pacific Northwest
will move east towards the upper Great Lakes/Midwest on Saturday,
accompanied by stronger low/mid-level wind fields and a zone of
large-scale ascent. A surface cold front will move east in tandem
with the shortwave trough and a warm front will lift north into
southern MN/WI during the day. A very moist low-level air mass will
be in place in advance of the front beneath the eastern periphery of
an EML, contributing to moderate-strong MLCAPE developing by
afternoon.
Low-level warm/moist advection Saturday morning may contribute to
lingering morning clouds/storms across western portions of the risk
area, along with substantial cloud cover that could impact the
degree of subsequent destabilization. Despite these concerns,
isolated supercell storms should develop across western/central MN
with risk for very large hail given effective shear in excess of 50
kts and steep mid-level lapse rates. Upscale growth into a linear
MCS is likely towards evening with damaging winds becoming the
primary severe threat. Significant severe gusts are possible as the
MCS moves east across WI. RAP/NAM forecast soundings reflect a
strengthening low-level jet Saturday evening with an increase in
low-level shear, supporting some risk for QLCS circulations and a
few tornadoes within the MCS late Saturday afternoon and evening.
More isolated severe storms will be possible farther south into
northern/western IA and eastern NE Saturday afternoon/evening along
the cold front. Moderate-strong MLCAPE, 35-50 kts of effective
shear, and a deep mixed layer should support a risk for damaging
winds and severe hail.
..Bunting.. 07/22/2022
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