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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Friday, July 22, 2022

SPC Jul 22, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0411 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND EXTREME NORTHEAST IOWA... CORRECTED FOR WIND GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur Saturday across parts of the Upper Midwest. A few tornadoes, large to very large hail, and significant damaging winds all appear possible. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A pronounced shortwave trough currently over the Pacific Northwest will move east towards the upper Great Lakes/Midwest on Saturday, accompanied by stronger low/mid-level wind fields and a zone of large-scale ascent. A surface cold front will move east in tandem with the shortwave trough and a warm front will lift north into southern MN/WI during the day. A very moist low-level air mass will be in place in advance of the front beneath the eastern periphery of an EML, contributing to moderate-strong MLCAPE developing by afternoon. Low-level warm/moist advection Saturday morning may contribute to lingering morning clouds/storms across western portions of the risk area, along with substantial cloud cover that could impact the degree of subsequent destabilization. Despite these concerns, isolated supercell storms should develop across western/central MN with risk for very large hail given effective shear in excess of 50 kts and steep mid-level lapse rates. Upscale growth into a linear MCS is likely towards evening with damaging winds becoming the primary severe threat. Significant severe gusts are possible as the MCS moves east across WI. RAP/NAM forecast soundings reflect a strengthening low-level jet Saturday evening with an increase in low-level shear, supporting some risk for QLCS circulations and a few tornadoes within the MCS late Saturday afternoon and evening. More isolated severe storms will be possible farther south into northern/western IA and eastern NE Saturday afternoon/evening along the cold front. Moderate-strong MLCAPE, 35-50 kts of effective shear, and a deep mixed layer should support a risk for damaging winds and severe hail. ..Bunting.. 07/22/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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