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Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Tabs under Moon Phases refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for SPC Convective outlook are updated daily with a live map a the beginning of the article. Touch or click map to get possible update, and follow link at end of article for referral to NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data were updated 24-48 hours after end of each day prior to Dec. 2020.

Sunday, July 17, 2022

SPC Jul 17, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN...AND NORTHWEST MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday and Tuesday night from the Upper Mississippi Valley into the western Great Lakes. Severe gusts appear to be the primary hazard. ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level low/trough will move from the MT/ND/Canadian border east-southeastward to the Upper Great Lakes during the period. Farther southwest, a mid-level anticyclone will be centered over the Four Corners. In the low levels, a surface low near the ND/Manitoba border will develop east as an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward across the Upper Midwest. ...Upper Midwest into the western Great Lakes... Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning over MN near the terminus of a southwesterly LLJ. This activity will probably dissipate during the morning before renewed activity develops during the day. It remains unclear regarding thunderstorm coverage across the Upper Midwest. Model guidance shows a stout capping inversion on the northeast periphery of an elevated mixed layer centered over the central/southern High Plains. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures and somewhat questionable boundary-layer dewpoints (mainly 60s to lower 70s deg F) are likely influencing model depictions of buoyancy and convective activity (i.e., possibly too limiting). Notwithstanding, have reduced severe probabilities for the southwest part of the Great Lakes owing to the trends in the model guidance. It seems that a cluster of storms will develop during the afternoon and spread east-southeastward through a moisture plume centered over WI. Damaging gusts will probably be the primary severe hazard. A conditional risk for severe may extend as far southwest and south as eastern IA into northern IL/IN with storms that may develop on the front and move into the southern Great Lakes late. Elsewhere, widely scattered to scattered diurnal storms are likely over the Southeast and Four Corners. ..Smith.. 07/17/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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