Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model guidance continues to highlight the potential for
severe thunderstorms across the Upper Midwest and western Great
Lakes on Tuesday (day 4). A powerful mid-level shortwave trough is
forecast to move from the ND/MT/Saskatchewan border
east-southeastward into the western Great Lakes on Day 4 and
subsequently into the central Great Lakes by Wednesday night. A
reservoir of rich low-level moisture will likely encompass much of
the Midwest into the Great Lakes and Northeast during the
Tuesday-Thursday timeframe. Mesoscale details are still uncertain
at this time. However, will maintain a highlight over the Upper
Midwest/western Great Lakes on Tuesday due to above-average
confidence in severe potential.
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