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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Sunday, July 10, 2022

SPC Jul 10, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL PLAINS...AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest and parts of the northern and central Plains into tonight. ...20Z Update... A Slight Risk has been added across portions of western/central NE, where scattered thunderstorm development is expected later this afternoon near and north of a weak frontal zone, and perhaps also within a very hot and well-mixed environment south of the front. One or more clusters may spread eastward into this evening, with a threat of severe wind gusts and perhaps some isolated hail. Eventual weakening is expected late tonight as storms encounter stronger convective inhibition, but an isolated severe-wind risk may eventually reach the MO Valley overnight. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of an ongoing storm cluster across western MN, as well as the potential for substantial redevelopment in its wake. Since some heating/destabilization is occurring across ND into far northern MN, and deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection, have opted to leave the Slight Risk in place across this area. Substantial cloudiness downstream of the ongoing western MN cluster may tend to limit the short-term severe threat to some extent, but very favorable midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support a threat of hail and isolated strong wind gusts, even if convection remains somewhat elevated. More vigorous redevelopment remains possible along the southern/southwestern flank of this cluster, but confidence is low regarding any particular scenario in association with this ongoing cluster. No substantive changes have been made elsewhere with the outlook. Severe potential remains evident from far southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD, where a few stronger cells/clusters are expected to develop and move toward the Black Hills this evening. ..Dean.. 07/10/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022/ ...MN and vicinity through late evening... The ongoing MCS across northern MN has been more resilient than all recent numerical model guidance (both mesoscale and CAM), and it may persist eastward into northeast MN through early afternoon as surface heating/destabilization continues to its east. Given the organized nature of the cold pool and its relatively fast motion, damaging gusts will remain possible into early afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development is possible this afternoon along the outflow boundary trailing west/southwestward from the MCS into west central MN and southeast ND. This area will likely remain capped until mid afternoon as a result of the warm elevated mixed layer noted in the 12z ABR sounding. Still, boundary-layer dewpoints of 68-70 F beneath 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates, in concert with daytime heating, should weaken convective inhibition and allow thunderstorm development around 21-22z. The storm environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail and a tornado or two. Some upscale growth into a small cluster will be possible, with an attendant threat for damaging winds as the convection moves southeastward toward east central MN. ...NE WY and vicinity late this afternoon through early tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over northwest MT this morning will crest the midlevel ridge and begin to move east-southeastward by early tonight. Residual low-level moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates, and a reinforcing cold frontal surge may be sufficient for high-based thunderstorm development by this evening, with storms subsequently spreading southeastward into early tonight. Buoyancy will be modest, but vertical shear will be favorable for supercells/small bowing segments capable of producing damaging winds and marginally severe hail. ...NE late this afternoon into early tonight... Strong surface heating and deep mixing along a cold front will promote high-based thunderstorm development late this afternoon, and storms will spread east-northeastward along the front toward IA into early tonight. Vertical shear will generally be weak, but inverted-v profiles and large DCAPE (~1500 J/kg) will favor strong-severe outflow gusts. ...Northwest Gulf Coast this afternoon... A weak cold front is sagging southward across the Gulf Coast states in association with a weak midlevel trough moving southward around the eastern periphery of a midlevel high over the southern High Plains. A hot/humid boundary layer persists south of the front from southeast TX into southern LA, where Large CAPE (> 3000 J/kg) and DCAPE > 1000 J/kg will support isolated strong/damaging downbursts with pulse-type cells and loosely organized, southward moving clusters this afternoon. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC