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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, July 11, 2022

SPC Jul 11, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of wind damage will be possible across parts of Illinois into Indiana and Lower Michigan today. Isolated strong-severe wind gusts and hail may also occur from Missouri west-southwestward into the south-central High Plains and across other parts of the upper Great Lakes. ...Discussion... The prior outlook/reasoning continues to reflect current conditions and future expectations with respect to convective/severe weather. As such, aside from minor tweaks to the 10% thunder area in a few locations, no changes appear to be necessary at this time. ..Goss.. 07/11/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022/ ...Central IL to Lower MI late this afternoon into early tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over MN will progress east-southeastward over the Great Lakes by tonight, as an associated/weak surface cold front moves southeastward into KS/MO/IL/MI. An overnight MCS has largely dissipated across northern IL this morning (aside from a few elevated storms over southern Lake MI), but lingering cloud debris will slow surface heating into early afternoon. By mid-late afternoon, pockets of surface heating and eastward advection of low-level moisture along the cold front will result in sufficient destabilization and weakening of the cap to allow thunderstorm development from northern IL across northern IN into southern Lower MI by this evening. There is still some uncertainty regarding the timing and corridor of storm initiation, given lingering clouds and modest forcing for ascent. If storms do form from IL into Lower MI by this evening along the front and/or differential heating zone, moderate buoyancy and 50 kt midlevel flow will support a threat for damaging outflow gusts. ...Northeast MN into WI/northern Lower MI through this evening... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to spread southeastward through this afternoon/evening, from northeast MN across WI and northern Lower MI in the zone of strongest forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel shortwave trough over MN. There could be sufficient residual low-level moisture, cooling midlevel temperatures, and deep-layer vertical shear (largely straight hodographs) for some organized clusters/low-topped supercells capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and large hail. ...Southeast CO/KS/MO late this afternoon into early tonight... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along the cold front late this afternoon/evening from MO into southern KS in conjunction with deep mixing along the cold front. Somewhat greater storm coverage expected across southeast CO/northeast NM in the upslope flow regime immediately north of the front. Vertical shear will be weak south of the front, with somewhat longer hodographs in the sheltered northeasterly low-level flow to the immediate cool side of the boundary. Primarily multicell clusters will be capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts in the hot, steep low-level lapse rate environment along the front, and convection could linger into the overnight hours in the zone of richer moisture to the cool side of the boundary. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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