SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022
Valid 112000Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of wind damage will be possible across parts
of Illinois into Indiana and Lower Michigan today. Isolated
strong-severe wind gusts and hail may also occur from Missouri
west-southwestward into the south-central High Plains and across
other parts of the upper Great Lakes.
...Discussion...
The prior outlook/reasoning continues to reflect current conditions
and future expectations with respect to convective/severe weather.
As such, aside from minor tweaks to the 10% thunder area in a few
locations, no changes appear to be necessary at this time.
..Goss.. 07/11/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022/
...Central IL to Lower MI late this afternoon into early tonight...
A midlevel shortwave trough over MN will progress east-southeastward
over the Great Lakes by tonight, as an associated/weak surface cold
front moves southeastward into KS/MO/IL/MI. An overnight MCS has
largely dissipated across northern IL this morning (aside from a few
elevated storms over southern Lake MI), but lingering cloud debris
will slow surface heating into early afternoon. By mid-late
afternoon, pockets of surface heating and eastward advection of
low-level moisture along the cold front will result in sufficient
destabilization and weakening of the cap to allow thunderstorm
development from northern IL across northern IN into southern Lower
MI by this evening. There is still some uncertainty regarding the
timing and corridor of storm initiation, given lingering clouds and
modest forcing for ascent. If storms do form from IL into Lower MI
by this evening along the front and/or differential heating zone,
moderate buoyancy and 50 kt midlevel flow will support a threat for
damaging outflow gusts.
...Northeast MN into WI/northern Lower MI through this evening...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to spread southeastward through
this afternoon/evening, from northeast MN across WI and northern
Lower MI in the zone of strongest forcing for ascent preceding the
midlevel shortwave trough over MN. There could be sufficient
residual low-level moisture, cooling midlevel temperatures, and
deep-layer vertical shear (largely straight hodographs) for some
organized clusters/low-topped supercells capable of producing
isolated damaging gusts and large hail.
...Southeast CO/KS/MO late this afternoon into early tonight...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated
along the cold front late this afternoon/evening from MO into
southern KS in conjunction with deep mixing along the cold front.
Somewhat greater storm coverage expected across southeast
CO/northeast NM in the upslope flow regime immediately north of the
front. Vertical shear will be weak south of the front, with
somewhat longer hodographs in the sheltered northeasterly low-level
flow to the immediate cool side of the boundary. Primarily
multicell clusters will be capable of producing isolated
strong-severe outflow gusts in the hot, steep low-level lapse rate
environment along the front, and convection could linger into the
overnight hours in the zone of richer moisture to the cool side of
the boundary.
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