SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with a wind-damage threat are expected
across parts of the Northeast on Tuesday. Marginally severe wind
gusts may also occur in parts of the central Appalachians.
...Northeast..,
An upper-level trough will move eastward through the eastern Great
Lakes on Tuesday, as an associated 55 to 65 knot mid-level jet
translates eastward across the Northeast. At the surface, a cold
front is forecast to move eastward into the central and northern
Appalachians. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to
upper 60s F will likely contribute to a corridor of moderate
instability by midday across parts of Pennsylvania and New York.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front during the
afternoon, and move eastward toward the Atlantic Coastal Plains. GFS
forecast soundings along and ahead of the front from southern
Pennsylvania to eastern New York have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50
knot range. At low-levels, winds are veered to southwest. This
combined with steep low-level lapse rates will likely support a
wind-damage threat with multicells that organize into short line
segments.
Further southwest into eastern Kentucky and West Virginia, isolated
thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon along and ahead
of the front. Although a few strong wind gusts will be possible,
relatively weak deep-layer shear will keep thunderstorms
unorganized.
..Broyles.. 07/10/2022
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