Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Thu Jun 09 2022
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An amplified mid/upper level pattern will emerge early in the Day
4-8 period as ridge shifts east from the Plains and builds over the
MS Valley vicinity around Day 4-5/Sun-Mon. Moisture will increase
across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest beneath the ridge, and
some severe thunderstorm potential may develop across parts of the
northern Plains during this time as a deepening western trough
begins to pivot eastward. However, guidance varies in the timing of
any shortwave impulses ejecting across the northern Rockies into the
Plains, and the northward extent of thunderstorm development. Thus,
forecast confidence is too low to include 15 percent delineations at
this time.
By Days 6-8/Tue-Thu, some severe threat will spread eastward into
the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity as a western shortwave trough
lifts northeast into Canada. Medium range guidance varies with
regards to timing of this feature and in the strength of the upper
ridge migrating across the Midwest. While some severe threat will
likely emerge across the Great Lakes/Midwest vicinity, it is unclear
which day or days may see a greater risk, and predictability is low.
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