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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Thursday, June 9, 2022

SPC Jun 9, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu Jun 09 2022 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... An amplified mid/upper level pattern will emerge early in the Day 4-8 period as ridge shifts east from the Plains and builds over the MS Valley vicinity around Day 4-5/Sun-Mon. Moisture will increase across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest beneath the ridge, and some severe thunderstorm potential may develop across parts of the northern Plains during this time as a deepening western trough begins to pivot eastward. However, guidance varies in the timing of any shortwave impulses ejecting across the northern Rockies into the Plains, and the northward extent of thunderstorm development. Thus, forecast confidence is too low to include 15 percent delineations at this time. By Days 6-8/Tue-Thu, some severe threat will spread eastward into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity as a western shortwave trough lifts northeast into Canada. Medium range guidance varies with regards to timing of this feature and in the strength of the upper ridge migrating across the Midwest. While some severe threat will likely emerge across the Great Lakes/Midwest vicinity, it is unclear which day or days may see a greater risk, and predictability is low. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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