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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, June 9, 2022

SPC Jun 9, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Jun 09 2022 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and potentially intense damaging gusts are expected this afternoon and tonight across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Discussion... Aside from minor line adjustments, no appreciable changes to the outlook appear to be necessary at this time. The current reasoning and expectations described in prior outlooks remains consistent with both current convective evolution, and expectations for additional development this afternoon and evening. Two areas of development continue to be apparent -- one ongoing now across the southeastern quarter of Colorado and into northeastern New Mexico (which should expand east-southeastward with time), and future initiation along the cold front from portions of northern Nebraska southwestward into the northeastern Colorado/northwestern Kansas vicinity. This convection should spread south-southeastward across Nebraska and Kansas overnight, possibly interacting with the aforementioned Colorado/New Mexico convection as it crosses the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and into the western and central Oklahoma vicinity tonight. Large hail will be possible with initial storm development in both of these areas, with risk transition more toward strong/damaging winds as upscale growth occurs into the evening. ..Goss.. 06/09/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 AM CDT Thu Jun 09 2022/ ...Central/southern Great Plains... After a one-day reprieve, another fairly active severe-weather day is expected later this afternoon and tonight, with a probable genesis across the central High Plains and near/more so east of the Front Range as well as in South Dakota/Nebraska, including a likely culmination of one or more southeastward-moving regional MCSs tonight across south-central Nebraska/Kansas and western Oklahoma/northwest Texas. Morning upper-air/surface analysis features an axis of moderate low-level (particularly with the lowest 0.5-1 km AGL) moisture extending from the middle part of Texas northwestward into the Texas Panhandle (12z Amarillo 11.6 g/kg mean mixing ratio) and the central High Plains. Somewhat more modest quality is on the northward extent into the central High Plains, related to an 8.2C 850 mb dewpoint and 8.2 g/kg mean mixing ratio as per the 12z North Platte observed sounding. This more modest moisture coincides with moderately stronger mid/high-level west-northwesterly winds that extend from the northern Rockies toward the north-central Plains/Upper Midwest, with Interstate 70 as a rough latitudinal delineation of 40+ kt mid-level winds (near and to its north). Mid-level speed max and subtle perturbation over eastern Wyoming this morning should semi-directly influence downstream areas including Nebraska/eastern Colorado into western/northern Kansas by late afternoon. Multiple corridors of increasing and intensifying boundary layer-rooted thunderstorm development are anticipated by around mid-afternoon. This includes near a weak triple point vicinity across north-central/west-central Nebraska and south-central South Dakota, as well as near the surface low/trough vicinity and orographically influenced areas of eastern Colorado southward toward the Raton Mesa vicinity. A combination of vertically veering wind profiles and stronger flow aloft (especially with northward extent) in conjunction with steep lapse rates/moderate buoyancy will support initial supercells across much of the aforementioned corridor. Large hail is possible, along with a tornado or two particularly during the early evening. Current thinking is that storms will grow upscale this evening, with multiple south/southeastward-moving MCSs potentially evolving. This could include an increased damaging wind potential from south-central Nebraska southward into north-central/central Kansas, as well as southeast Colorado into southwest Kansas and northwest Texas/Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma tonight. The potential for one or more corridors of Enhanced Risk upgrade may still be warranted in subsequent Outlook(s). ...Middle Gulf Coast/Southeast States... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front from Louisiana into the Carolinas. Weak winds aloft will limit convective organization, but a few storms will be capable of locally damaging wind gusts during the mid/late afternoon through early evening hours. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)