SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022
Valid 102000Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST VICINITY...
...SUMMARY...
A cluster of strong thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk for
potentially damaging wind gusts as it spreads into and across
northern Gulf coastal areas late this afternoon.
...20Z Update...
Categorical and probabilistic lines have been adjusted, mostly to
account for the progression of the synoptic and sub-synoptic
features and their influence on trends concerning instability.
The most appreciable lingering severe weather potential still
appears centered on continuing vigorous thunderstorm development
along conglomerated convective outflow now advancing into the
coastal plain of southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the
western Florida Panhandle. Supported by weak to moderate deep-layer
shear and thermodynamic profiles characterized by modest lapse rates
and sizable mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, strongest
convection may still pose a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado or two through around 11/00-02Z.
..Kerr.. 06/10/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022/
...AR/LA/MS/AL/FL Panhandle...
An organized severe MCS continues to move southeast at 40 to 45 kts
across portions of MS/LA, with several reports of wind damage in
association with this system since 12z. The MCS is along the
southern periphery of stronger mid-level flow, however some
augmentation of that flow is evident due to an MCV associated with
overnight convection across OK. Continued heating downstream will
result in additional destabilization, with MLCAPE of 2000 to locally
3000 J/kg expected. The MCS is expected to continue moving towards
the coast this afternoon posing a risk for primarily damaging winds,
although a brief tornado or two will remain possible with any
transient embedded circulations. Some uncertainty exists regarding
the intensity of the MCS as it moves towards the coast given ongoing
and increasing thunderstorms over southeast LA and southern MS,
however expect the overall damaging wind risk to remain given the
current MCS structure and speed of movement.
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