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Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Tabs under Moon Phases refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for SPC Convective outlook are updated daily with a live map a the beginning of the article. Touch or click map to get possible update, and follow link at end of article for referral to NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data were updated 24-48 hours after end of each day prior to Dec. 2020.

Friday, June 10, 2022

SPC Jun 10, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A cluster of strong thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts as it spreads into and across northern Gulf coastal areas late this afternoon. ...20Z Update... Categorical and probabilistic lines have been adjusted, mostly to account for the progression of the synoptic and sub-synoptic features and their influence on trends concerning instability. The most appreciable lingering severe weather potential still appears centered on continuing vigorous thunderstorm development along conglomerated convective outflow now advancing into the coastal plain of southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. Supported by weak to moderate deep-layer shear and thermodynamic profiles characterized by modest lapse rates and sizable mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, strongest convection may still pose a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two through around 11/00-02Z. ..Kerr.. 06/10/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022/ ...AR/LA/MS/AL/FL Panhandle... An organized severe MCS continues to move southeast at 40 to 45 kts across portions of MS/LA, with several reports of wind damage in association with this system since 12z. The MCS is along the southern periphery of stronger mid-level flow, however some augmentation of that flow is evident due to an MCV associated with overnight convection across OK. Continued heating downstream will result in additional destabilization, with MLCAPE of 2000 to locally 3000 J/kg expected. The MCS is expected to continue moving towards the coast this afternoon posing a risk for primarily damaging winds, although a brief tornado or two will remain possible with any transient embedded circulations. Some uncertainty exists regarding the intensity of the MCS as it moves towards the coast given ongoing and increasing thunderstorms over southeast LA and southern MS, however expect the overall damaging wind risk to remain given the current MCS structure and speed of movement. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC