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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, June 8, 2022

SPC Jun 8, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Wed Jun 08 2022 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-6/Sat-Mon -- Central/Northern Plains... Zonal upper level flow will prevail for much of Days 4-5/Sat-Sun across the middle part of the U.S. Strong westerly flow will extend from the northern Rockies to the upper Great Lakes during this time. An upper anticyclone will be centered over the southern Plains. Surface low pressure developing over the central High Plains vicinity in response to a developing upper trough over the western U.S. will allow rich boundary-layer moisture to develop northward across the mid/upper MS Valley and into parts of the central/northern Plains. Some severe potential may develop on Day 5/Sun across western portions of the central/northern Plains along a surface trough in moist upslope flow. However, large scale ascent appears weak and storm coverage is uncertain at this time. Severe potential may continue across the region on Day 6/Mon as the western upper trough begins to eject eastward and strong deep-layer southwesterly flow overspreads a moist and unstable environment. However, the intensity of the trough and timing of its eastward progression vary considerably in forecast guidance. Furthermore, run to run model consistency has been poor, resulting in low predictability. ...Days 7-8/Tue-Wed -- Great Lakes/Midwest Vicinity... As the western upper trough progresses eastward, some severe threat could develop across parts of the Upper Midwest and/or Great Lakes vicinity late in the period. Large inconsistencies continue among various forecast guidance during this time, mainly with regards to the timing of the ejection of the upper trough. While severe potential is possible from the upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes, predictability and forecast confidence remain too low to include probabilities at this time. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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