SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Wed Jun 08 2022
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST...AND FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA VICINITY
EAST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will persist across parts of the Ohio
Valley/Midwest this afternoon and evening, and from the Mississippi
Delta region eastward to the southern Appalachians.
...Discussion...
The ongoing forecast remains largely reflective of the current
scenario, thus not requiring substantial changes with respect to the
ongoing outlook areas. Greatest severe risk in the short term
remains over the mid Ohio Valley region, where strong storms --
including a few rotating cells -- continue to evolve.
Elsewhere, some severe risk will continue from the lower Mississippi
Valley eastward into the central Gulf Coast states, with storms near
and ahead of the remnant MCV now crossing Arkansas. Meanwhile, the
MRGL risk over the southern High Plains vicinity has been reduced in
size, as substantial convective outflow has progressed southwestward
to far West Texas and central/southern New Mexico.
..Goss.. 06/08/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Wed Jun 08 2022/
...Ohio Valley/Midwest including Indiana/Ohio/Kentucky...
The remnants of an MCS continue to weaken and progress eastward near
the lower Wabash River vicinity along the Illinois/Indiana border. A
general trend of abating cloud cover precedes the remnant MCS/MCV
with ample insolation in vicinity of a west/east-oriented front that
will spread northward today as a warm front. Middle/upper 60s F
surface dewpoints will accompany this northward-shifting front,
which will contribute to 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE across Kentucky into the
southern halves of Indiana/Ohio.
Upper-air analysis/observational data sampled relatively strong
late-spring mid/high-level winds across the Great Lakes/Midwest this
morning, and the southern edge of these stronger winds will overlie
the aforementioned corridor in vicinity of the warm front and
deepening surface wave. Several supercells are expected to develop
across the region this afternoon. Enlarged hodographs including the
possibility of 100-150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH could potentially yield a
few tornadoes in addition to scattered damaging winds and some hail.
The severe storm risk will likely persist eastward toward the upper
Ohio Valley through evening.
...Southeast Oklahoma/ArkLaTex to the Deep South...
A relatively well-organized quasi-linear MCS persists across the
southern Oklahoma/north Texas border vicinity and southeast Oklahoma
late this morning. Even as the low-level jet and related warm/moist
inflow has already begun to abate, potential MCV characteristics and
sufficient storm-relative winds may support MCS sustenance and
possibly reinvigoration into a downstream air mass that is moist and
already moderately unstable. It is plausible that the severe risk
could develop as far east-southeast as Mississippi/Alabama and
possible Georgia through this evening. Bouts of damaging winds and
isolated hail will be possible regionally.
...Southeast New Mexico/Far West Texas...
Relatively moist easterly low-level flow and steep mid-level lapse
rates will support moderate-to-large buoyancy around peak afternoon
heating. Mid/upper-level flow will be rather weak, but there will be
immense veering of the wind profile with height for modest effective
shear of 20-30 kt. This should be adequate for a few low-end
supercells initially evolving predominately slow-moving multicell
clusters. Isolated severe wind gusts, hail, and a brief tornado will
be possible, with activity likely to nocturnally weaken after dusk.
...Carolinas to the Lower Mid-Atlantic States...
Strong diurnal heating will support widely scattered thunderstorm
development this afternoon. Poor mid-level lapse rates and generally
modest deep-layer flow/shear will likely limit storm organization,
but steep low-level lapse rates may support a threat of localized
damaging winds with the strongest storms.
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