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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Wednesday, June 8, 2022

SPC Jun 8, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed Jun 08 2022 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST...AND FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA VICINITY EAST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will persist across parts of the Ohio Valley/Midwest this afternoon and evening, and from the Mississippi Delta region eastward to the southern Appalachians. ...Discussion... The ongoing forecast remains largely reflective of the current scenario, thus not requiring substantial changes with respect to the ongoing outlook areas. Greatest severe risk in the short term remains over the mid Ohio Valley region, where strong storms -- including a few rotating cells -- continue to evolve. Elsewhere, some severe risk will continue from the lower Mississippi Valley eastward into the central Gulf Coast states, with storms near and ahead of the remnant MCV now crossing Arkansas. Meanwhile, the MRGL risk over the southern High Plains vicinity has been reduced in size, as substantial convective outflow has progressed southwestward to far West Texas and central/southern New Mexico. ..Goss.. 06/08/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Wed Jun 08 2022/ ...Ohio Valley/Midwest including Indiana/Ohio/Kentucky... The remnants of an MCS continue to weaken and progress eastward near the lower Wabash River vicinity along the Illinois/Indiana border. A general trend of abating cloud cover precedes the remnant MCS/MCV with ample insolation in vicinity of a west/east-oriented front that will spread northward today as a warm front. Middle/upper 60s F surface dewpoints will accompany this northward-shifting front, which will contribute to 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE across Kentucky into the southern halves of Indiana/Ohio. Upper-air analysis/observational data sampled relatively strong late-spring mid/high-level winds across the Great Lakes/Midwest this morning, and the southern edge of these stronger winds will overlie the aforementioned corridor in vicinity of the warm front and deepening surface wave. Several supercells are expected to develop across the region this afternoon. Enlarged hodographs including the possibility of 100-150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH could potentially yield a few tornadoes in addition to scattered damaging winds and some hail. The severe storm risk will likely persist eastward toward the upper Ohio Valley through evening. ...Southeast Oklahoma/ArkLaTex to the Deep South... A relatively well-organized quasi-linear MCS persists across the southern Oklahoma/north Texas border vicinity and southeast Oklahoma late this morning. Even as the low-level jet and related warm/moist inflow has already begun to abate, potential MCV characteristics and sufficient storm-relative winds may support MCS sustenance and possibly reinvigoration into a downstream air mass that is moist and already moderately unstable. It is plausible that the severe risk could develop as far east-southeast as Mississippi/Alabama and possible Georgia through this evening. Bouts of damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible regionally. ...Southeast New Mexico/Far West Texas... Relatively moist easterly low-level flow and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate-to-large buoyancy around peak afternoon heating. Mid/upper-level flow will be rather weak, but there will be immense veering of the wind profile with height for modest effective shear of 20-30 kt. This should be adequate for a few low-end supercells initially evolving predominately slow-moving multicell clusters. Isolated severe wind gusts, hail, and a brief tornado will be possible, with activity likely to nocturnally weaken after dusk. ...Carolinas to the Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Strong diurnal heating will support widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. Poor mid-level lapse rates and generally modest deep-layer flow/shear will likely limit storm organization, but steep low-level lapse rates may support a threat of localized damaging winds with the strongest storms. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC