Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 AM CDT Tue Jun 07 2022
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Fri - Eastern OK to the TN Valley Vicinity...
An MCS associated with a shortwave impulse migrating through
enhanced northwesterly flow aloft is expected to be ongoing Friday
morning from southwest MO into northwest AR and eastern OK. This
impulse is forecast to continue east/southeast across MS/AL through
the afternoon and across the southeastern states overnight. A very
moist and moderately unstable airmass is expected ahead of the
ongoing MCS or remnant MCV. Some severe threat will be possible,
either as a continuation of the severe MCS expected in the Day 3/Thu
time period or via redevelopment/reintensification as the mid/upper
shortwave progresses eastward across a favorable downstream
thermodynamic environment. Damaging gusts will be possible with any
organized MCS that develops across the region on Friday.
...Days 5-8/Sat-Tue...
An amplified upper ridge will persist over the Plains through the
weekend with a trough in the eastern U.S. At the same time, a
large-scale upper trough will move inland across the western states.
There is some potential that any lead wave that ejects across the
northern/central Rockies and moves atop the Plains upper ridge could
result in increasing severe potential from the northern Plains the
mid/upper MS Valley around Day 6-8/Sun-Tue. However, guidance varies
in the timing of the evolution of the western trough/Plains ridge
and any associated shortwave impulses migrating through larger-scale
flow. Predictability/forecast confidence remains too low at later
time periods to include probabilities at this time.
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