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Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Tabs under Moon Phases refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for SPC Convective outlook are updated daily with a live map a the beginning of the article. Touch or click map to get possible update, and follow link at end of article for referral to NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data were updated 24-48 hours after end of each day prior to Dec. 2020.

Tuesday, June 7, 2022

SPC Jun 7, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Tue Jun 07 2022 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Fri - Eastern OK to the TN Valley Vicinity... An MCS associated with a shortwave impulse migrating through enhanced northwesterly flow aloft is expected to be ongoing Friday morning from southwest MO into northwest AR and eastern OK. This impulse is forecast to continue east/southeast across MS/AL through the afternoon and across the southeastern states overnight. A very moist and moderately unstable airmass is expected ahead of the ongoing MCS or remnant MCV. Some severe threat will be possible, either as a continuation of the severe MCS expected in the Day 3/Thu time period or via redevelopment/reintensification as the mid/upper shortwave progresses eastward across a favorable downstream thermodynamic environment. Damaging gusts will be possible with any organized MCS that develops across the region on Friday. ...Days 5-8/Sat-Tue... An amplified upper ridge will persist over the Plains through the weekend with a trough in the eastern U.S. At the same time, a large-scale upper trough will move inland across the western states. There is some potential that any lead wave that ejects across the northern/central Rockies and moves atop the Plains upper ridge could result in increasing severe potential from the northern Plains the mid/upper MS Valley around Day 6-8/Sun-Tue. However, guidance varies in the timing of the evolution of the western trough/Plains ridge and any associated shortwave impulses migrating through larger-scale flow. Predictability/forecast confidence remains too low at later time periods to include probabilities at this time. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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