SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CDT Tue Jun 07 2022
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Significant severe thunderstorms are most likely across parts of the
central Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening. Very
large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible.
...Discussion...
No appreciable changes to the outlook appear necessary at this time,
as the evolving convective scenario continues to unfold per prior
expectations.
Widespread severe weather -- with some significant events -- remains
likely across an area centered over the central Great Plains, with
initial convection now developing over western fringes of the
outlook from eastern Wyoming/southwestern South Dakota southward to
northeastern New Mexico. Very large hail and locally damaging winds
can be expected, along with potential for a tornado or two. Expect
this convection to increase in both coverage and intensity over
time, as storms spread southeastward across the central Plains this
evening and overnight, accompanied by the risk for fairly widespread
strong/damaging winds.
Other, more isolated severe storms are occurring across the Mid
Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and vicinity, with locally gusty
winds and hail possible into this evening.
..Goss.. 06/07/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Jun 07 2022/
...Eastern WY...Northeast CO...NE...Northern KS...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough continues to move through the
northern Rockies, accompanied by 50-60 kt jet at 500 mb. Large-scale
ascent coupled with low-level upslope flow is expected to result in
initiation over the higher terrain, before then moving eastward into
High Plains and eventually more of NE/KS. An initially cellular mode
should give way to one or more bowing segments with time. Long
hodographs amid modest buoyancy favor splitting supercells early,
with an attendant threat for large to very large hail. Thereafter,
upscale growth will contribute to a transition to more of a severe
wind risk. A weak frontal zone will result in a corridor more
favorable for southeast progression, with the convective line
expected to track from the NE Panhandle southeastward into central
NE and north-central/northeast KS. Given the strength of the flow
aloft, the development of a well-organized convective line with a
robust rear-inflow jet is possible. As a result, some significant
severe gusts (i.e. greater than 74 mph) are possible.
...South-central High Plains into OK...
Thunderstorms are also expected to develop across the higher terrain
of southeast CO and northeast NM, before then moving eastward into
the southern Plains. Large hail and strong wind gusts are possible
with this initially more cellular activity. Potential exists for
these storms to then grow upscale, into a more organized convective
line (a solution that is favored by several CAMs). However, capping
downstream across the TX Panhandle introduces uncertainty regarding
the overall maintenance of any line that does develop. If a
convective line does not develop, warm-air advection storms appear
likely overnight into early tomorrow morning across
central/northeast OK. Given all of these factors,
slight-risk-equivalent probabilities were extended eastward to
coverage the severe potential into more of OK.
...Western AR into Western TN...
Ongoing convective cluster has weaken somewhat over the past hour or
so (as discussed in more detail in MCD #1069). Expectation is for
the MCV associated with this cluster to continue eastward across AR
and into more of the Mid-South. Modest diurnal destabilization is
anticipated ahead of this MCV, with the expectation for at least
scattered thunderstorms to develop near and ahead of it. Much of
this region is south of the stronger flow aloft, but ample low-level
moisture will still support robust updrafts and a few multicells
capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated hail.
...TN Valley...Central/Upper OH Valley...Western NY...
Recent visible satellite imagery shows widespread cloud cover across
much of the OH Valley, central Appalachians, and Lower Great Lakes
in association with a low-amplitude shortwave trough currently
moving through the central OH Valley/Lower MI. An associated surface
low precedes this shortwave and is currently centered over eastern
ON, with an attendant cold front extending back southwestward
through western OH, southern IN, and southern IL. Given the ongoing
cloud coverage and showers, destabilization ahead of the front will
likely be tempered somewhat. Even so, some diurnal destabilization
is still likely, with isolated to scattered storms still expected
ahead of the front. Enhanced mid-level flow accompanies this
shortwave, so a few more organized/robust thunderstorms capable of
damaging wind gusts are possible. An isolated instance or two of
hail may also occur.
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