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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Tuesday, June 7, 2022

SPC Jun 7, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CDT Tue Jun 07 2022 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe thunderstorms are most likely across parts of the central Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening. Very large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible. ...Discussion... No appreciable changes to the outlook appear necessary at this time, as the evolving convective scenario continues to unfold per prior expectations. Widespread severe weather -- with some significant events -- remains likely across an area centered over the central Great Plains, with initial convection now developing over western fringes of the outlook from eastern Wyoming/southwestern South Dakota southward to northeastern New Mexico. Very large hail and locally damaging winds can be expected, along with potential for a tornado or two. Expect this convection to increase in both coverage and intensity over time, as storms spread southeastward across the central Plains this evening and overnight, accompanied by the risk for fairly widespread strong/damaging winds. Other, more isolated severe storms are occurring across the Mid Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and vicinity, with locally gusty winds and hail possible into this evening. ..Goss.. 06/07/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Jun 07 2022/ ...Eastern WY...Northeast CO...NE...Northern KS... A low-amplitude shortwave trough continues to move through the northern Rockies, accompanied by 50-60 kt jet at 500 mb. Large-scale ascent coupled with low-level upslope flow is expected to result in initiation over the higher terrain, before then moving eastward into High Plains and eventually more of NE/KS. An initially cellular mode should give way to one or more bowing segments with time. Long hodographs amid modest buoyancy favor splitting supercells early, with an attendant threat for large to very large hail. Thereafter, upscale growth will contribute to a transition to more of a severe wind risk. A weak frontal zone will result in a corridor more favorable for southeast progression, with the convective line expected to track from the NE Panhandle southeastward into central NE and north-central/northeast KS. Given the strength of the flow aloft, the development of a well-organized convective line with a robust rear-inflow jet is possible. As a result, some significant severe gusts (i.e. greater than 74 mph) are possible. ...South-central High Plains into OK... Thunderstorms are also expected to develop across the higher terrain of southeast CO and northeast NM, before then moving eastward into the southern Plains. Large hail and strong wind gusts are possible with this initially more cellular activity. Potential exists for these storms to then grow upscale, into a more organized convective line (a solution that is favored by several CAMs). However, capping downstream across the TX Panhandle introduces uncertainty regarding the overall maintenance of any line that does develop. If a convective line does not develop, warm-air advection storms appear likely overnight into early tomorrow morning across central/northeast OK. Given all of these factors, slight-risk-equivalent probabilities were extended eastward to coverage the severe potential into more of OK. ...Western AR into Western TN... Ongoing convective cluster has weaken somewhat over the past hour or so (as discussed in more detail in MCD #1069). Expectation is for the MCV associated with this cluster to continue eastward across AR and into more of the Mid-South. Modest diurnal destabilization is anticipated ahead of this MCV, with the expectation for at least scattered thunderstorms to develop near and ahead of it. Much of this region is south of the stronger flow aloft, but ample low-level moisture will still support robust updrafts and a few multicells capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated hail. ...TN Valley...Central/Upper OH Valley...Western NY... Recent visible satellite imagery shows widespread cloud cover across much of the OH Valley, central Appalachians, and Lower Great Lakes in association with a low-amplitude shortwave trough currently moving through the central OH Valley/Lower MI. An associated surface low precedes this shortwave and is currently centered over eastern ON, with an attendant cold front extending back southwestward through western OH, southern IN, and southern IL. Given the ongoing cloud coverage and showers, destabilization ahead of the front will likely be tempered somewhat. Even so, some diurnal destabilization is still likely, with isolated to scattered storms still expected ahead of the front. Enhanced mid-level flow accompanies this shortwave, so a few more organized/robust thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible. An isolated instance or two of hail may also occur. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC