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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, June 7, 2022

SPC Jun 7, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Tue Jun 07 2022 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and intense, damaging gusts will be possible on Thursday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Central/Southern Plains... Quasi-zonal flow will be in place across the Plains Thursday morning. A compact shortwave impulse is forecast to migrate southeast from the central Rockies toward the Ozark Plateau/Mid-MS Valley during the late afternoon into early Friday. This will result in strengthening mid/upper northwesterly flow over the Plains while a southerly low level jet intensifies during the evening. Mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will be common beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will result in a corridor of strong instability to the east of a dryline across the eastern CO or western KS. Strong capping and dry midlevels may limit the western extent of severe potential, with isolated thunderstorms possible by late afternoon/early evening from western NE to the CO/KS border. As deep-layer flow increasing and the southerly low-level jet intensifies, isolated supercell thunderstorms may grow upscale into a severe bowing MCS across KS. This system would then track southeast into OK and possibly southwest MO/northwest AR overnight into early Friday. While some uncertainty exists given multiple rounds of convection leading into Thursday, and some longitudinal differences in the placement of the shortwave impulse, the overall pattern typically would support an intense thunderstorm complex capable of large hail (especially early in the event) and damaging gusts. ...Southeast Vicinity... A very moist and moderately unstable airmass will reside across the Gulf Coast states. Deep-layer flow will remain weak over the region limiting organized convection. However, pockets of strong heating, steep low-level lapse rates and PW values around 1.5 inches could support sporadic downbursts capable of local strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/07/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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