SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Tue Jun 07 2022
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and intense, damaging
gusts will be possible on Thursday across portions of the central
and southern Plains.
...Central/Southern Plains...
Quasi-zonal flow will be in place across the Plains Thursday
morning. A compact shortwave impulse is forecast to migrate
southeast from the central Rockies toward the Ozark Plateau/Mid-MS
Valley during the late afternoon into early Friday. This will result
in strengthening mid/upper northwesterly flow over the Plains while
a southerly low level jet intensifies during the evening. Mid to
upper 60s surface dewpoints will be common beneath steep midlevel
lapse rates. This will result in a corridor of strong instability to
the east of a dryline across the eastern CO or western KS. Strong
capping and dry midlevels may limit the western extent of severe
potential, with isolated thunderstorms possible by late
afternoon/early evening from western NE to the CO/KS border. As
deep-layer flow increasing and the southerly low-level jet
intensifies, isolated supercell thunderstorms may grow upscale into
a severe bowing MCS across KS. This system would then track
southeast into OK and possibly southwest MO/northwest AR overnight
into early Friday. While some uncertainty exists given multiple
rounds of convection leading into Thursday, and some longitudinal
differences in the placement of the shortwave impulse, the overall
pattern typically would support an intense thunderstorm complex
capable of large hail (especially early in the event) and damaging
gusts.
...Southeast Vicinity...
A very moist and moderately unstable airmass will reside across the
Gulf Coast states. Deep-layer flow will remain weak over the region
limiting organized convection. However, pockets of strong heating,
steep low-level lapse rates and PW values around 1.5 inches could
support sporadic downbursts capable of local strong gusts.
..Leitman.. 06/07/2022
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