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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, June 6, 2022

SPC Jun 6, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...FROM SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI...MID OHIO...AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Ohio Valley to Mid-South this afternoon and evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible from the Black Hills vicinity to the central Great Plains and south-central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...Discussion.. No substantive outlook area changes appear necessary at this time, with ongoing convective evolution largely in line with the existing forecast. Main changes in this update are to expand the MRGL area and associated probabilistic forecasts eastward across more of northern Illinois, and a similar areal expansion over central Ohio. Meanwhile, the SLGT risk in Nebraska/northern Kansas is being expanded eastward, to include the ongoing supercell over the Boone County vicinity. Otherwise, only minor line adjustments are being implemented. Storms are developing over the northern High Plains area, with initiation spreading southeastward with time, while central High Plains development has also begun. These areas of development should expand to overspread much of the SLGT risk areas over the next several hours. Meanwhile, some increase in convection is occurring over western portions of Tennessee and Kentucky, within the SLGT risk across this area. ..Goss.. 06/06/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022/ ...Mid-South and TN/Lower OH Valleys... Visible satellite and regional radar imagery show a well-defined MCV over southern MO. Thunderstorm coverage has increased over the Mid-South within the warm-air advection wing preceding this MCV. The air mass downstream into more of the TN and Lower OH Valleys continues to destabilize amid diurnal heating and modest low-level moisture. As such, the expectation is for the ongoing activity to persist and likely increase in coverage over the next few hours. Area VAD profiles and recent mesoanalysis show relatively weak shear ahead of the MCV. As such, the overall expectation is for the majority of this activity preceding the MCV to remain sub-severe and multicellular, although a few instances of hail and a water-loaded downburst are possible. Higher severe potential appears to exist along the outflow in the wake of this MCV later this afternoon. Temperatures are expected to climb into the 80s in the wake of the MCV, while dewpoints reach the upper 60s to low 70s. These thermodynamic conditions coupled with moderately enhanced low-level flow throughout the southern periphery of the MCV should support the potential for a few severe storms. Primary hazards should be damaging wind gusts, although the potential for hail and a tornado or two also exists. ...Northern High Plains and Black Hills to central NE... A modest shortwave trough currently over the northern Rockies will continue eastward throughout the day, reaching the Dakotas by this evening. Low-level moisture will be limited across southeast MT/eastern WY, but ascent attendant to this shortwave coupled with low-level convergence near a modest surface low is still expected to be enough to initiate thunderstorms during this afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow accompanying the shortwave will contribute to long hodographs supportive of supercells, and a weak front will provide a favored corridor for southeasterly storm progression into central NE. These storms will likely develop and progress to the north and east of the steeper mid-level lapse rates, but the wind profiles are still favorable for large to very large hail within any more robust updrafts. ...South-Central High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon amid strong diurnal heating and low-level convergence (as well as some glancing influence from the northern High Plains shortwave trough). Storms should intensify/mature as they gradually move southeastward into the greater low-level moisture/buoyancy. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough for a few supercells capable of damaging wind gusts and/or hail. ...Southern IA/Northern MO... Predominantly multicellular thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of the weak frontal zone across southern IA and northern MO this afternoon. Even with a mostly multicellular mode, a few stronger updrafts, and potentially even a supercell or two, may develop. Isolated hail is possible with any more robust updrafts. ...FL and southeast GA... A low-amplitude mid-level trough over the northeast Gulf will drift east today. This feature will aid in a pocket of -10 C 500-m temperatures across north FL and southeast GA this afternoon. As MLCAPE reaches 1500-2000 J/kg, scattered thunderstorms should develop along the sea breezes. While lower-level flow will be quite weak, 25-40 kt effective bulk shear will support mid-level updraft rotation. Isolated severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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