Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 AM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Thu - Central/Southern Plains...
Large-scale mid/upper flow will become more amplified on Thursday as
a ridge builds over the west and a shortwave trough ejects eastward
from the central Rockies to the Mid-MS Valley. Increasing
northwesterly flow aloft will overspread strengthening low-level
southerly flow, resulting in strong vertical shear profiles across
the central/southern Plains. A surface low will develop over the
central High Plains, and resulting increasing southerly low-level
flow will transport 60s dewpoints northward across OK/KS/NE.
Thunderstorms will initially develop over the central High Plains
and spread east/southeast during the evening. A strengthening low
level jet will promote upscale development, and a severe MCS appears
likely to develop somewhere across NE/KS and shift southeast into OK
overnight.
...Day 5/Fri - Portions of AR into the TN Valley...
While some differences exist regarding the timing of the mid/upper
trough continuing to develop eastward on Friday, it appears severe
potential from the Day 4/Thu period will continue into parts of the
southern U.S. on Day 5. The mid/upper shortwave trough will pivot
eastward across the Mid-South, bringing 35-45 kt midlevel flow
across the region. A surface low over AR will develop eastward
toward the western Carolinas by Friday evening as a cold front drops
south across OK/AR and the mid-South. Ahead of the front, a very
moist and unstable airmass will be in place. Reintensification of
going convection at the beginning of the period, or new development
near the surface low and/or remnant MCV could result in a severe MCS
tracking across the region.
...Day 6-8/Sat-Mon...
Some severe potential could develop over portions of the
Mid-Atlantic around Day 6/Sat as the mid/upper shortwave trough
progresses eastward and eventually offshore. However, forecast
guidance varies considerably in the timing and strength of the
trough and uncertainty is high. Further west, an upper ridge
centered over the Rockies will amplify and shift east over the
Plains through the end of the period. This will result in hot and
mostly dry conditions west of the MS River through Monday.
Meanwhile, a mean upper trough will persist east of the MS River.
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