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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, June 6, 2022

SPC Jun 6, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Thu - Central/Southern Plains... Large-scale mid/upper flow will become more amplified on Thursday as a ridge builds over the west and a shortwave trough ejects eastward from the central Rockies to the Mid-MS Valley. Increasing northwesterly flow aloft will overspread strengthening low-level southerly flow, resulting in strong vertical shear profiles across the central/southern Plains. A surface low will develop over the central High Plains, and resulting increasing southerly low-level flow will transport 60s dewpoints northward across OK/KS/NE. Thunderstorms will initially develop over the central High Plains and spread east/southeast during the evening. A strengthening low level jet will promote upscale development, and a severe MCS appears likely to develop somewhere across NE/KS and shift southeast into OK overnight. ...Day 5/Fri - Portions of AR into the TN Valley... While some differences exist regarding the timing of the mid/upper trough continuing to develop eastward on Friday, it appears severe potential from the Day 4/Thu period will continue into parts of the southern U.S. on Day 5. The mid/upper shortwave trough will pivot eastward across the Mid-South, bringing 35-45 kt midlevel flow across the region. A surface low over AR will develop eastward toward the western Carolinas by Friday evening as a cold front drops south across OK/AR and the mid-South. Ahead of the front, a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place. Reintensification of going convection at the beginning of the period, or new development near the surface low and/or remnant MCV could result in a severe MCS tracking across the region. ...Day 6-8/Sat-Mon... Some severe potential could develop over portions of the Mid-Atlantic around Day 6/Sat as the mid/upper shortwave trough progresses eastward and eventually offshore. However, forecast guidance varies considerably in the timing and strength of the trough and uncertainty is high. Further west, an upper ridge centered over the Rockies will amplify and shift east over the Plains through the end of the period. This will result in hot and mostly dry conditions west of the MS River through Monday. Meanwhile, a mean upper trough will persist east of the MS River. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC