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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Monday, June 6, 2022

SPC Jun 6, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM THE OZARKS VICINITY TO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across parts of the southern High Plains and from the Ozarks vicinity into the Mid-South. ...Ozarks Vicinity to the Mid-South... A mid/upper shortwave trough will track eastward from the central Plains early Wednesday to the Ohio valley by evening, and then the central Appalachians overnight. A surface low develop eastward from MO/IL to southwest PA by evening, with a trailing weak cold front sagging south across the OK/MO/IL and the lower OH Valley. Clusters of thunderstorms or a well-organized MCS may be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of southeast KS/eastern OK or southern MO/AR. There is some potential thunderstorms could reintensify as they track east/southeastward through the day into the Mid-South where a very moist airmass will be in place amid strengthening midlevel west/northwesterly flow. However, it is unclear how much destabilization will occur as forecast guidance depicts quite a bit of rain and cloud cover. The overall pattern will generally support some severe potential if stronger destabilization can occur, necessitating Marginal risk probabilities. ...Southern High Plains Vicinity... A post-frontal upslope flow regime will maintain mid-50s to mid-60s dewpoints across northeast NM/southeast CO into the OK/TX Panhandles, with near 70 dewpoints further east into central/southern OK. Isolated thunderstorms will likely develop near the higher terrain of NM/CO in this upslope regime. Steep lapse rates and strong heating will support strong destabilization. While deep-layer flow will be weak, easterly low-level flow beneath mid/upper level westerlies will result in 30-40 kt effective shear magnitudes favorable for supercells. Sporadic large hail and strong outflow gusts will be possible. Capping may initially limit eastward extent of the severe threat, but guidance suggest a cluster of storms may develop eastward overnight across parts of the TX Panhandles into southern OK. If this occurs, some threat for damaging gusts could accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)