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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, June 5, 2022

SPC Jun 5, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Jun 05 2022 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST CO AND NORTHEAST NM INTO WESTERN KS...THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains on Tuesday. ...Portions of the Central/Southern Plains to the Ozarks Vicinity... A corridor of severe potential will persist from the central/southern Plains vicinity into the Ozarks on Tuesday. Zonal flow will remain over the region with a shortwave impulse ejecting across the northern/central Plains during the evening/overnight hours. This will result in increasing westerly deep-layer flow atop a moist and unstable airmass. Some uncertainty regarding the location/extent of greatest severe potential exists due to likely widespread convection ongoing at the beginning of the period across parts of the northern/central Plains. Current thinking is that a surface boundary will be left behind by this early convection, and extend roughly west to east from southeast CO into southern KS or northern OK. South/southeasterly low level flow across the southern Plains should allow for airmass recovery into southeast CO, the OK/TX Panhandles, much of OK and KS. Thunderstorms are then expected to develop during the late afternoon or evening in a moist upslope flow regime, similar to the several days leading into Tuesday. This activity will then grow upscale during the nighttime hours as midlevel flow increases and propagate east/southeast across portions of the southern Plains. Large hail and damaging gusts will be possible with these storms. The northward extent of severe potential will largely be moderated by ongoing precipitation at the beginning of the period, and how much the airmass may be able to recover into northeast CO and southern NE. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during the morning and afternoon across parts of southern KS/northern OK into the Ozarks. However, the magnitude of severe potential remains unclear as destabilization will be somewhat limited by ongoing precipitation and cloudiness, and from possible impacts from several rounds of thunderstorms/potential MCSs leading into Tuesday. ..Leitman.. 06/05/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)