SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sun Jun 05 2022
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST CO
AND NORTHEAST NM INTO WESTERN KS...THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND
NORTHWEST OK...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and hail
will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains on
Tuesday.
...Portions of the Central/Southern Plains to the Ozarks Vicinity...
A corridor of severe potential will persist from the
central/southern Plains vicinity into the Ozarks on Tuesday. Zonal
flow will remain over the region with a shortwave impulse ejecting
across the northern/central Plains during the evening/overnight
hours. This will result in increasing westerly deep-layer flow atop
a moist and unstable airmass.
Some uncertainty regarding the location/extent of greatest severe
potential exists due to likely widespread convection ongoing at the
beginning of the period across parts of the northern/central Plains.
Current thinking is that a surface boundary will be left behind by
this early convection, and extend roughly west to east from
southeast CO into southern KS or northern OK. South/southeasterly
low level flow across the southern Plains should allow for airmass
recovery into southeast CO, the OK/TX Panhandles, much of OK and KS.
Thunderstorms are then expected to develop during the late afternoon
or evening in a moist upslope flow regime, similar to the several
days leading into Tuesday. This activity will then grow upscale
during the nighttime hours as midlevel flow increases and propagate
east/southeast across portions of the southern Plains. Large hail
and damaging gusts will be possible with these storms. The northward
extent of severe potential will largely be moderated by ongoing
precipitation at the beginning of the period, and how much the
airmass may be able to recover into northeast CO and southern NE.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during the morning
and afternoon across parts of southern KS/northern OK into the
Ozarks. However, the magnitude of severe potential remains unclear
as destabilization will be somewhat limited by ongoing precipitation
and cloudiness, and from possible impacts from several rounds of
thunderstorms/potential MCSs leading into Tuesday.
..Leitman.. 06/05/2022
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