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Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Tabs under Moon Phases refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for SPC Convective outlook are updated daily with a live map a the beginning of the article. Touch or click map to get possible update, and follow link at end of article for referral to NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data were updated 24-48 hours after end of each day prior to Dec. 2020.

Sunday, June 5, 2022

SPC Jun 5, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sun Jun 05 2022 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will amplify over the northern Rockies on Day 4/Wed while a shortwave trough migrates across the Midwest. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential will be possible as a surface front shifts east across the Midwest. However, widespread precipitation and cloudiness will limit destabilization and heavy rain may be the predominant hazard rather than focused/organized severe convection. The exception may be across parts of the southern High Plains into the TX Panhandle and parts of Oklahoma where another MCS could develop in moist upslope flow during the evening/overnight. However, confidence in this scenario is low given several days within a similar pattern and multiple rounds of prior convection. By Day 5/Thu, a more synoptically evident pattern supporting the development of a severe MCS is forecast to emerge over the central Plains. A strong shortwave impulse is forecast to track across SD/NE/KS. Enhanced northwest flow aloft will overspread a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet on the periphery of a very moist and unstable boundary-layer. ECMWF and GFS deterministic guidance as well as ECENS/GEFS ensemble data are in fairly good agreement in this signal for the development of a severe MCS over the central Plains. While this area may shift some in coming outlooks, a 15 percent delineation appears prudent at this time across a large portions of the central Plains. Some severe potential as a continuation or reinvigoration of the ongoing MCS from Day 5/Thu could persist into Day 6/Fri across portions of the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. However, forecast guidance varies considerably in the evolution of a surface low and cold front over the southern Plains into the Midwest and forecast confidence is low. Large spread in forecast guidance continues into Days 7-8/Sat-Sun with the ECMWF showing a more progressive and amplified pattern compared to the GFS. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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