Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CDT Sun Jun 05 2022
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge will amplify over the northern Rockies on Day 4/Wed
while a shortwave trough migrates across the Midwest. Some strong to
severe thunderstorm potential will be possible as a surface front
shifts east across the Midwest. However, widespread precipitation
and cloudiness will limit destabilization and heavy rain may be the
predominant hazard rather than focused/organized severe convection.
The exception may be across parts of the southern High Plains into
the TX Panhandle and parts of Oklahoma where another MCS could
develop in moist upslope flow during the evening/overnight. However,
confidence in this scenario is low given several days within a
similar pattern and multiple rounds of prior convection.
By Day 5/Thu, a more synoptically evident pattern supporting the
development of a severe MCS is forecast to emerge over the central
Plains. A strong shortwave impulse is forecast to track across
SD/NE/KS. Enhanced northwest flow aloft will overspread a
strengthening southwesterly low-level jet on the periphery of a very
moist and unstable boundary-layer. ECMWF and GFS deterministic
guidance as well as ECENS/GEFS ensemble data are in fairly good
agreement in this signal for the development of a severe MCS over
the central Plains. While this area may shift some in coming
outlooks, a 15 percent delineation appears prudent at this time
across a large portions of the central Plains.
Some severe potential as a continuation or reinvigoration of the
ongoing MCS from Day 5/Thu could persist into Day 6/Fri across
portions of the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. However, forecast
guidance varies considerably in the evolution of a surface low and
cold front over the southern Plains into the Midwest and forecast
confidence is low. Large spread in forecast guidance continues into
Days 7-8/Sat-Sun with the ECMWF showing a more progressive and
amplified pattern compared to the GFS.
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