Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 AM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Quasi-zonal mid/upper flow will persist through at least Day 5/Wed.
Weak shortwave impulses will migrate through westerly flow atop a
moist and unstable airmass across portions of the central Plains
toward the mid-MS Valley. Southerly low-level upslope flow will
support daily thunderstorm development across the central High
Plains and some potential for overnight MCS activity tracking across
the central Plains toward the mid-MS Valley will continue. By Day
6/Thu or Day 7/Fri, deterministic and ensemble guidance suggest
upper level flow will amplify, with stronger northwesterly flow
developing over the Plains and Midwest as a deepening trough
develops over the mid-MS and OH Valley vicinity. This could support
some increasing severe potential further east from eastern KS/OK
into the mid/lower MS Valley. Overall, forecast uncertainty is
somewhat high with lower confidence given several rounds of
potential MCSs leading into and continuing through the Day 4-8
period.
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