SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022
Valid 042000Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible late this afternoon
and evening across parts of the central Great Plains to the Texas
Panhandle. Large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds should
be the main threats.
...20Z Update...
A small northeastward extension has been made to the Slight Risk
across eastern NE. Some high-resolution guidance suggests that a
couple of supercells may develop across this area by late afternoon
in the vicinity of a stalled surface boundary. Large hail should be
the main threat if these thunderstorms develop. Otherwise, no major
changes have been made to the remainder of the Slight Risk across
the central/southern Plains. Thunderstorms developing over far
northeastern NM and northern/eastern CO should spread eastward over
the next several hours. As they encounter greater low-level moisture
in western NE/KS and the OK/TX Panhandles, gradual strengthening
should occur. Both large hail and damaging winds still appear
possible.
No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk across parts of the
Northeast. See Mesoscale Discussion 1028 for more details.
..Gleason.. 06/04/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022/
...Central Great Plains...
In the wake of an MCV drifting east over east-central Kansas, 50s to
low 60s surface dew points persist from the southern High Plains
into western Kansas. As a plume of very steep mid-level lapse rates
sampled by the 12Z Denver sounding spread east, a swath of moderate
to large buoyancy with MLCAPE from 1500-3000 J/kg will develop by
around peak heating. Initially isolated thunderstorm development is
expected along the lee trough in eastern Colorado and along a
quasi-stationary front bisecting Nebraska during the late afternoon.
Convective coverage will likely increase in the early evening as
additional cells form along the front and towards the front/lee
trough intersection.
While mid-level flow will not be particularly strong, a
west-northwesterly directional component and strong high-level winds
will aid in effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt. This will be adequate
for a few supercells capable of producing significant severe hail.
Consolidating convective outflows may eventually yield clusters
progressing southeast through tonight across western/central Kansas
with an attendant severe wind threat.
...Southern High Plains...
Decaying convection is ongoing from south-central Texas westward
towards the Pecos Valley. This activity should further decay through
midday. The dryline will sharpen this afternoon along the I-27
corridor to the Lower Pecos Valley. Convective development appears
most probable in the Big Bend region where terrain influence will
aid in sustaining updrafts. Guidance is quite varied in the degree
of convective development farther north along the dryline as a weak
upper trough passes across it this afternoon, but at least isolated
late-afternoon development is plausible.
...Northern New England...
Influenced by a modestly unstable air mass ahead of an upstream
shortwave trough/jet streak, a couple of strong or locally severe
low-topped storms could occur across the region this afternoon, with
the possible of localized wind damage and/or some hail.
...Southeast Florida...
An already limited tornado/wind damage potential associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone One (reference NHC) will continue to
steadily diminish this afternoon as the disturbance continues
east-northeastward with convection focusing across the nearby
Atlantic.
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