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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, June 4, 2022

SPC Jun 4, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible late this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Great Plains to the Texas Panhandle. Large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20Z Update... A small northeastward extension has been made to the Slight Risk across eastern NE. Some high-resolution guidance suggests that a couple of supercells may develop across this area by late afternoon in the vicinity of a stalled surface boundary. Large hail should be the main threat if these thunderstorms develop. Otherwise, no major changes have been made to the remainder of the Slight Risk across the central/southern Plains. Thunderstorms developing over far northeastern NM and northern/eastern CO should spread eastward over the next several hours. As they encounter greater low-level moisture in western NE/KS and the OK/TX Panhandles, gradual strengthening should occur. Both large hail and damaging winds still appear possible. No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk across parts of the Northeast. See Mesoscale Discussion 1028 for more details. ..Gleason.. 06/04/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022/ ...Central Great Plains... In the wake of an MCV drifting east over east-central Kansas, 50s to low 60s surface dew points persist from the southern High Plains into western Kansas. As a plume of very steep mid-level lapse rates sampled by the 12Z Denver sounding spread east, a swath of moderate to large buoyancy with MLCAPE from 1500-3000 J/kg will develop by around peak heating. Initially isolated thunderstorm development is expected along the lee trough in eastern Colorado and along a quasi-stationary front bisecting Nebraska during the late afternoon. Convective coverage will likely increase in the early evening as additional cells form along the front and towards the front/lee trough intersection. While mid-level flow will not be particularly strong, a west-northwesterly directional component and strong high-level winds will aid in effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt. This will be adequate for a few supercells capable of producing significant severe hail. Consolidating convective outflows may eventually yield clusters progressing southeast through tonight across western/central Kansas with an attendant severe wind threat. ...Southern High Plains... Decaying convection is ongoing from south-central Texas westward towards the Pecos Valley. This activity should further decay through midday. The dryline will sharpen this afternoon along the I-27 corridor to the Lower Pecos Valley. Convective development appears most probable in the Big Bend region where terrain influence will aid in sustaining updrafts. Guidance is quite varied in the degree of convective development farther north along the dryline as a weak upper trough passes across it this afternoon, but at least isolated late-afternoon development is plausible. ...Northern New England... Influenced by a modestly unstable air mass ahead of an upstream shortwave trough/jet streak, a couple of strong or locally severe low-topped storms could occur across the region this afternoon, with the possible of localized wind damage and/or some hail. ...Southeast Florida... An already limited tornado/wind damage potential associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One (reference NHC) will continue to steadily diminish this afternoon as the disturbance continues east-northeastward with convection focusing across the nearby Atlantic. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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