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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, June 4, 2022

SPC Jun 4, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday from the central High Plains toward the Ozarks. Damaging gusts and hail are the main hazards expected with this activity. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks Vicinity... The overall large-scale pattern will not change much on Day 3/Monday. A weak shortwave trough will be located over the mid/upper MS Valley early Monday and pivot eastward through the day while another weak shortwave impulse migrates through westerly flow to the Ozarks vicinity by afternoon. An MCS may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of MO, leading to some uncertainty in severe potential across the region. However, a moist and unstable airmass will exist and some re-invigoration of morning convection or perhaps afternoon development along any remnant outflows could pose a threat for hail or damaging gusts. Further west toward the central High Plains, modest westerly flow will prevail early in the period. However, west/northwest mid/upper flow is forecast to increase by early evening as another weak midlevel trough develops eastward from the Rockies into the Plains. South/southeasterly low level flow will maintain a moist airmass across OK and KS, though some uncertainty in moisture quality with northward extent, and in the position of surface boundaries exists. Nevertheless, an unstable environment and moist, upslope flow should support strong to severe thunderstorm development by late afternoon/early evening across the central High Plains, similar to prior days (Day 1 and 2 period). Convection may become organized into an east/southeastward progressing MCS during the nighttime hours over portions of KS/northern OK, posing a threat for severe gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/04/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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