SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday from the
central High Plains toward the Ozarks. Damaging gusts and hail are
the main hazards expected with this activity.
...Central High Plains to the Ozarks Vicinity...
The overall large-scale pattern will not change much on Day
3/Monday. A weak shortwave trough will be located over the mid/upper
MS Valley early Monday and pivot eastward through the day while
another weak shortwave impulse migrates through westerly flow to the
Ozarks vicinity by afternoon. An MCS may be ongoing Monday morning
across parts of MO, leading to some uncertainty in severe potential
across the region. However, a moist and unstable airmass will exist
and some re-invigoration of morning convection or perhaps afternoon
development along any remnant outflows could pose a threat for hail
or damaging gusts.
Further west toward the central High Plains, modest westerly flow
will prevail early in the period. However, west/northwest mid/upper
flow is forecast to increase by early evening as another weak
midlevel trough develops eastward from the Rockies into the Plains.
South/southeasterly low level flow will maintain a moist airmass
across OK and KS, though some uncertainty in moisture quality with
northward extent, and in the position of surface boundaries exists.
Nevertheless, an unstable environment and moist, upslope flow should
support strong to severe thunderstorm development by late
afternoon/early evening across the central High Plains, similar to
prior days (Day 1 and 2 period). Convection may become organized
into an east/southeastward progressing MCS during the nighttime
hours over portions of KS/northern OK, posing a threat for severe
gusts.
..Leitman.. 06/04/2022
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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