SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022
Valid 032000Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND TO THE
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...
...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are possible beginning this evening across the
Florida Keys and continuing overnight into Saturday morning across
far south Florida. Scattered large hail and strong wind gusts may
also accompany thunderstorm activity developing off the southern
Rockies into adjacent high plains late this afternoon and evening.
...20Z Update...
Outlook categorical and probabilistic lines have been adjusted some,
mostly to account for the progression of synoptic and sub-synoptic
developments and their associated influence on destabilization. For
more specific information, please refer to the 1630Z outlook
appended below and the latest SPC mesoscale discussions.
..Kerr.. 06/03/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022/
...South Florida...
A potential tropical cyclone as per the National Hurricane Center
(see NHC for the latest details) will initially influence the
Florida Keys and other parts of South Florida into tonight.
Intensifying low-level winds and increasing hodograph curvature are
expected to initially overspread the Keys this evening and across
the south Florida Peninsula late tonight and Saturday morning, all
while moisture will be increasing. A few tornadoes are plausible
given this scenario.
...Southern High Plains to central/east Texas...
A readily apparent MCV as per visible satellite/radar imagery
continues to move slowly east-southeastward across western north
Texas at midday. Renewed peripheral thunderstorm development and
intensification is possible this afternoon as downstream
boundary-layer heating supports modest surface-based
destabilization. While some severe storms are possible, the overall
CAPE/shear parameter space appears rather marginal for a more
organized damaging wind threat.
Farther west, with a ribbon of upper 50s to low 60s surface dew
points persisting to the south and north of the overnight MCS track,
scattered thunderstorm development will occur once again this
afternoon off the higher terrain from the Sangre de Cristos to the
Trans-Pecos. Very steep mid-level lapse rates will support a
broadening plume of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE amid 30-40 kt effective
bulk shear. Several supercells will likely develop, some of which
may produce golf to tennis ball size hail. An intensifying low-level
jet this evening could support a multi-hour window for tornado
potential, but convection will likely grow upscale into a couple
MCSs from the Panhandles to the Permian Basin with an attendant
severe wind threat. This threat will diminish overnight, but a
weakening MCS should linger longest across portions of west-central
Texas.
...Central High Plains...
Persistent southerly low-level flow will aid in poleward moisture
advection and increasing MLCAPE at peak heating. Scattered afternoon
thunderstorms developing east off the Front Range will impinge on
the instability axis and intensify by late afternoon. Both buoyancy
and deep-layer shear are expected to be somewhat less favorable
relative to the southern High Plains. Most CAMs suggest transient
supercell structures and multicell clusters should tend to dominate,
which may yield a somewhat lesser intensity threat relative to
farther south.
...Carolinas/Georgia...
Have introduced a categorical Slight Risk this afternoon for
anticipations of a somewhat higher probability/semi-focused corridor
for localized wind damage potential across portions of South
Carolina and southern/eastern North Carolina. The region will be
influenced by the southern periphery of moderately strong cyclonic
flow aloft. Ample heating coincident with mid/upper 60s F surface
dewpoints will support moderate destabilization and some stronger
updrafts/downdrafts capable of wind damage.
...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Within the northern belt of moderate mid-level westerlies occurring
amid a low-amplitude ridge, deep-layer wind profiles will support a
conditional threat for a few supercells as afternoon convection
spreads east off the higher terrain. However, much of the region
lacks appreciable low-level moisture at present with mid 30s to mid
40s surface dew points common. While further moistening will occur
this afternoon, a marginal CAPE/instability combo should support
only an isolated severe hail/wind threat.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/SRb51f
