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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Friday, June 3, 2022

SPC Jun 3, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible beginning this evening across the Florida Keys and continuing overnight into Saturday morning across far south Florida. Scattered large hail and strong wind gusts may also accompany thunderstorm activity developing off the southern Rockies into adjacent high plains late this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... Outlook categorical and probabilistic lines have been adjusted some, mostly to account for the progression of synoptic and sub-synoptic developments and their associated influence on destabilization. For more specific information, please refer to the 1630Z outlook appended below and the latest SPC mesoscale discussions. ..Kerr.. 06/03/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022/ ...South Florida... A potential tropical cyclone as per the National Hurricane Center (see NHC for the latest details) will initially influence the Florida Keys and other parts of South Florida into tonight. Intensifying low-level winds and increasing hodograph curvature are expected to initially overspread the Keys this evening and across the south Florida Peninsula late tonight and Saturday morning, all while moisture will be increasing. A few tornadoes are plausible given this scenario. ...Southern High Plains to central/east Texas... A readily apparent MCV as per visible satellite/radar imagery continues to move slowly east-southeastward across western north Texas at midday. Renewed peripheral thunderstorm development and intensification is possible this afternoon as downstream boundary-layer heating supports modest surface-based destabilization. While some severe storms are possible, the overall CAPE/shear parameter space appears rather marginal for a more organized damaging wind threat. Farther west, with a ribbon of upper 50s to low 60s surface dew points persisting to the south and north of the overnight MCS track, scattered thunderstorm development will occur once again this afternoon off the higher terrain from the Sangre de Cristos to the Trans-Pecos. Very steep mid-level lapse rates will support a broadening plume of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE amid 30-40 kt effective bulk shear. Several supercells will likely develop, some of which may produce golf to tennis ball size hail. An intensifying low-level jet this evening could support a multi-hour window for tornado potential, but convection will likely grow upscale into a couple MCSs from the Panhandles to the Permian Basin with an attendant severe wind threat. This threat will diminish overnight, but a weakening MCS should linger longest across portions of west-central Texas. ...Central High Plains... Persistent southerly low-level flow will aid in poleward moisture advection and increasing MLCAPE at peak heating. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms developing east off the Front Range will impinge on the instability axis and intensify by late afternoon. Both buoyancy and deep-layer shear are expected to be somewhat less favorable relative to the southern High Plains. Most CAMs suggest transient supercell structures and multicell clusters should tend to dominate, which may yield a somewhat lesser intensity threat relative to farther south. ...Carolinas/Georgia... Have introduced a categorical Slight Risk this afternoon for anticipations of a somewhat higher probability/semi-focused corridor for localized wind damage potential across portions of South Carolina and southern/eastern North Carolina. The region will be influenced by the southern periphery of moderately strong cyclonic flow aloft. Ample heating coincident with mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints will support moderate destabilization and some stronger updrafts/downdrafts capable of wind damage. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Within the northern belt of moderate mid-level westerlies occurring amid a low-amplitude ridge, deep-layer wind profiles will support a conditional threat for a few supercells as afternoon convection spreads east off the higher terrain. However, much of the region lacks appreciable low-level moisture at present with mid 30s to mid 40s surface dew points common. While further moistening will occur this afternoon, a marginal CAPE/instability combo should support only an isolated severe hail/wind threat. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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