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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, June 29, 2022

SPC Jun 29, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Synopsis... A prominent blocking regime with amplified split flow will persist across the eastern Pacific into western North America through this period and beyond. Downstream, broad mid-level troughing will be maintained across much of Canada and the northern tier of the U.S., to the east of the Rockies, with a deep embedded low of Arctic origins forecast to slowly turn eastward across the southern Hudson/James Bay vicinity. Lower/mid-tropospheric ridging extending from the southwestern Atlantic through the southern Rockies likely will also be maintained, while mid-level ridging builds further across the northern Rockies, downstream of the deepening troughing offshore through inland of the U.S. Pacific coast. An occluding surface cyclone initially forecast over southern Hudson Bay by early Friday may tend to develop to a position closer to the mid-level low, while a secondary frontal wave forms across northern Quebec into the Newfoundland and Labrador vicinity by late Friday night. While gradually stalling and weakening across parts of the Ohio Valley into middle Mississippi Valley and central Great Plains, the trailing cold front may not advance southeast of the lower Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley until Friday night. ...Central Great Plains into the Northeast... Destabilization near and south of the surface front will provide one possible focus for scattered thunderstorm development Friday through Friday night. However, due to a lack of both steeper mid-level lapse rates and more substantive low-level moistening, most of the various model ensemble output suggest that mixed-layer CAPE may only become seasonably modest, with the larger CAPE mostly focused to the south of the stronger westerlies. Furthermore, it appears that the pre-frontal southwesterly low-level flow will weaken Thursday into Friday, with stronger deep-layer mean wind fields on Friday generally confined to areas north of the international border. There remains a signal within the various model output that the environment may become marginally conducive to organized convection, including supercells, in a narrow corridor north of the international border (across parts of southeastern Ontario into the St. Lawrence Valley) by late Friday afternoon. However, given the rather weak forecast boundary-layer instability across this region, it seems probable that this activity will tend to weak as it spreads into a less unstable air mass near and southeast of the international border Friday evening. It might not be out of the question that at least low severe weather probabilities may eventually be needed across parts of New York and New England, near the international border, as well as perhaps areas west-southwestward ahead of the front into the Great Plains, as model spread begins to decrease. At this time, though, it appears that any severe weather will be rather isolated/sparse in coverage Friday through Friday night. ..Kerr.. 06/29/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)