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Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Tabs under Moon Phases refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for SPC Convective outlook are updated daily with a live map a the beginning of the article. Touch or click map to get possible update, and follow link at end of article for referral to NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data were updated 24-48 hours after end of each day prior to Dec. 2020.

Tuesday, June 28, 2022

SPC Jun 28, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ALSO OVER CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible over parts of the upper Midwest and Montana into this evening. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been expanded slightly westward across east-central MN, in advance of thunderstorms developing along a cold front this afternoon, and also expanded slightly eastward over southern upper MI. The northern edge of severe probabilities across the upper Midwest has been trimmed in the wake of southeastward-moving convection. Otherwise, the previous outlook reasoning remains valid, with thunderstorms capable of hail and locally damaging wind expected to continue into early evening from southeast MN into much of WI and southern parts of upper MI. Storms capable of isolated to widely scattered severe wind gusts also remain possible across parts of MT into this evening. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 06/28/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022/ ...Upper Midwest... Water vapor imagery shows a progressive low-amplitude shortwave trough over ND. This feature will track into the western Great Lakes region this afternoon, and into Lower MI tonight. Ahead of the trough, mostly clear skies are evident over northern WI and western Upper MI, with dewpoints in the 50s expected to yield afternoon MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. Increasing forcing for ascent will lead to scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for a few rotating storms, and cool temperatures aloft will support a risk of hail in the stronger cells. Several 12z CAM solutions suggest that the western flank of this activity will build southward across western WI into southeast MN this evening, with a continued threat of hail and locally damaging winds. ...MT... A large upper ridge is present across much of the southwestern states and Great Basin today, with the main ridge axis extending northward into central MT. This part of the ridge will weaken this afternoon as a subtle shortwave trough over eastern WA/OR approaches. Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon over the mountains of southwest MT/southeast ID/northwest WY and track east-northeastward. Instability and low-level moisture will be quite limited, and the overall coverage of severe storms is in question. However, a few cells will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts until mid-evening. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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