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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, June 29, 2022

SPC Jun 29, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS EVENING.... ...SUMMARY... Intense thunderstorm gusts are likely through this evening over parts of the Dakotas. ...20z Update... An upgrade to an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5), mainly for swaths of damaging gusts, has been included across parts of central/northern SD with the 20z update. Additionally, the Slight risk has been expanded southward into parts of northern NE, and across part of central ND. While instability remains somewhat modest across the northern Plains, strong heating has allowed very steep low-level lapse rates to develop. Additionally, DCAPE values greater than 1200 J/kg are noted in latest mesoanalysis. Forecast soundings indicated favorable thermodynamic profiles supporting intense downdrafts and thunderstorm outflows. Effective shear diminishes with southward extent into the central Plains, but will favor organized convection across SD, where clusters/bowing segments are expected. Latest CAMs and machine learning guidance, couple with current observations suggest severe gusts are possible from north-central NE into SD and eastern ND/western MN through this evening. A few gusts greater than 75 mph possible from central into northeast SD. For more details concerning short term evolution of severe convection, reference MCD 1304. ..Leitman.. 06/29/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022/ ...Northern/Eastern ND... Visible satellite imagery shows a cluster of high-based showers and thunderstorms over northern MT. This activity is associated with a subtle mid-level shortwave trough and jet streak. Several CAM solutions suggest one or more intense thunderstorms form later today as this feature moves into northern ND. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and sufficient vertical shear for supercell structures capable of large hail. If these storms form, they could persist for several hours and track eastward into northeast ND/northwest MN before weakening. ...WY/NE/Dakotas... A broad upper ridge is present today over the central Rockies/Plains, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies extending from northern UT into WY/NE/SD. A plume of mid-level moisture is evident in water vapor imagery over parts of WY/CO, which is likely to result in scattered high-based thunderstorms this afternoon over the central/northern High Plains. Hot surface temperatures over 100F will yield inverted-v profiles with substantial downdraft potential. Sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft and associated momentum transfer potential will aid in the risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...Eastern NY into New England... A upper level trough over the Great Lakes region will track eastward into the northeast states this afternoon, with cool mid-level temperatures and large scale ascent overspreading parts of NY/New England. Strong daytime heating in this area will result in steep low-level lapse rates, while dewpoints in the 50s yield MLCAPE values of around 500 J/kg. A few strong/severe storms are possible over southern Quebec, with uncertainty how far south storms will develop. Will maintain the existing MRGL risk area for the conditional potential for locally strong/damaging winds in storms that can develop. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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