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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, June 28, 2022

SPC Jun 28, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that blocking with an amplified split flow will remain prominent across the eastern Pacific into western North America through next weekend and at least early next week. While a mid-level high remains centered over the Canadian Yukon and adjacent Northwest Territories vicinity, large-scale mid-level troughing is likely to maintained to its south, offshore through inland of much of the U.S. Pacific coast. Downstream, after an initially deep embedded mid-level low finally progresses offshore of the Newfoundland and Labrador coast and weakens by early next week, broad mid-level troughing is forecast to be maintained across much of eastern Canada and the Northeast. At the same time mid-level ridging will also be maintained from the southwestern Atlantic through the southern Great Plains. And mid-level ridging within the westerlies to its north is forecast to expand between the larger scale troughs, from the northern Rockies eastward along the Canadian/U.S. border vicinity into the upper Great Lakes region. A cold front accompanying the deep mid-level low as it migrates across and east of the southern Hudson/James Bay vicinity appears likely to progress south of the international border, into the Northeast by early Saturday. Ahead of the front, it does appear increasingly probable that at least a narrow corridor of more substantive low-level moistening, across the northern Mid Atlantic into southern New England, will contribute to destabilization near the southern fringe of stronger westerlies (including 30-40+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer). While it currently appears that CAPE might be limited by weak mid-level lapse rates, low-level lapse rates may become fairly steep. If CAPE were a little larger or low-level wind fields a little stronger, the risk for organized severe thunderstorm activity would seem a little more certain. As it is currently forecast, the environment probably will become at least marginally conducive to thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, and it is possible that this could impact the urban corridor, at least from the Greater Boston to New York City areas, perhaps into the Philadelphia and Baltimore/Washington D.C. areas. Late next weekend through early next week (including the July 4th holiday), it is possible that one or two perturbations could emerge from the Pacific coast mid-level troughing, and contribute to potential for the evolution of organizing convective clusters across the northern Intermountain region through northern Rockies. Eventually, this activity may work its way around the northern periphery of the mid-level ridging near the central Canadian/U.S. border area. However, the predictability of these features at this extended range remains low. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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