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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Tuesday, June 28, 2022

SPC Jun 28, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN AND NORTHERN IOWA...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from the central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes region Thursday, posing at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Blocking may continue to become more prominent, with an increasingly amplified split flow developing across the eastern Pacific into western North America during this period. Downstream, a deep mid-level low emanating from the Canadian Arctic latitudes is forecast to continue to slowly dig near the southwestern shores of Hudson Bay. As it does, mid-level heights may become suppressed to its south, across parts of the northern Great Plains through the Great Lakes region. Otherwise, there appears likely to be little change to the persistent mid/upper ridging across much of the central and southern tier of the United Sates. In lower-levels, a developing surface low, emerging from the southern Canadian Prairies on Wednesday, may progress across northern Ontario, before perhaps deepening more substantively and occluding across the southeastern Hudson Bay vicinity by late Thursday night. A trailing cold front appears likely to advance south of the international border through much of the upper Great Lakes region and northern Great Plains. Along and east of pre-frontal surface troughing, and around the western periphery of low-level ridging centered over the southwestern Atlantic, a seasonably moderate to strong low-level jet (30-40+ kt around 850 mb) may persist through much of the period across parts of the southern and central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Although a gradual moistening, aided by the northeastward advection of monsoonal moisture, may continue along much of this corridor, seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content might remain confined to much of the Southeast, lower Mississippi Valley and southeast Texas. ...Central Great Plains into upper Great Lakes... Although the strongest deep-layer mean wind fields may begin to shift across and northeast of the Great Lakes region, 30-50 kt flow in the 850-500 mb layer may persist across the Upper Midwest into Great Lakes region through much of the day. Farther south, the stronger flow (on the order of 30 kt around 850 mb) will be confined to the lower levels, east of the pre-frontal surface troughing into the central/southern Great Plains. Given sufficient destabilization, this regime will at least conditionally support organized severe thunderstorm development. Despite some continued moistening of the pre-frontal boundary layer, guidance suggests that modification of mid-level lapse rates, associated with the remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air, may only allow for the development of seasonably modest mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. Within the stronger deep-layer mean flow, near and east-northeast of the upper Great Lakes, this may be slowed or inhibited by early day cloud cover. Still, this environment may support at least widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development by late Thursday afternoon and evening. This may include isolated supercells, and a couple of evolving clusters of storms, which could pose a risk for mostly severe wind and some hail. ..Kerr.. 06/28/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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