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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Monday, June 27, 2022

SPC Jun 27, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AREA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor across the northern Great Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail. ...Synopsis... Models suggest that blocking may begin to become more prominent once again during this period across the northeastern Pacific and adjacent northwestern North America vicinity, with a mid/upper high slowly beginning to form across Alaska/Yukon. Downstream of this regime, a deep mid-level low emerging from the Canadian Arctic latitudes is forecast to continue to slowly dig to the west of Hudson Bay. The increasingly deformed remnants of another low, emerging from persistent mid-level troughing offshore of the Pacific coast, appear likely to merge into the broader-scale cyclonic flow to the south of the more prominent digging low. Models indicate that this will be accompanied by cyclogenesis across the southern Canadian Prairies into northwestern Ontario Wednesday through Wednesday night, along with strengthening southwesterly to westerly lower/mid tropospheric wind fields across the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest and central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. Coincidentally, a plume of very warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air is forecast to nose northeast of the Rockies, toward the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, in lower latitudes, lower/mid-tropospheric ridging will prevail across much of the central and southern tier of the U.S. While a return flow of monsoonal moisture will continue around the western through northern periphery of the ridging, across and north-northeast of the Southwest and southern Rockies vicinity, seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content will remain largely confined to the Southeast and northwest Gulf Coast states. ...Northern Great Plains into Upper Great Lakes region... Within the deepening surface troughing, boundary-layer moistening may largely be confined to that associated with gradual continued evapotranspiration/return of evapotranspiration driven moistening from the Corn Belt. Models do suggest that surface dew points could increase above 60F, with perhaps localized pockets of mid 60s F. However, beneath the plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, this may only yield generally modest mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-1500+ J/kg across most areas. The lack of more substantive low-level moistening, coupled with the strong inhibition, continues to contribute to uncertain severe weather potential for this period. However, models suggest that at least widely scattered thunderstorm development is possible during the late afternoon and evening, which could include isolated supercells capable of producing severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. And, though there is sizable spread, there is at least some signal within the various model output that large-scale forcing for ascent could become supportive of an upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms Wednesday night. It appears that this could occur anywhere from entirely north of the Minnesota international border to south of the international border. However, if this occurs, the strong wind fields, coupled with the dry well-mixed sub-cloud air, could contribute to strong outflow capable of producing severe wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 06/27/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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