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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, June 26, 2022

SPC Jun 26, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage may occur into this evening from the Mid South to the upper Ohio Valley, and over southwest Arizona. ...20z Update... The previous outlook philosophy remains unchanged with the 20z update. Areas near the Missouri Bootheel vicinity have been removed from the Marginal/5 percent wind risk as convection has shifted south and east. The 10 percent general thunderstorm area has also been removed from portions of the TX Panhandle and Oklahoma as a drier airmass filters south behind the southward-sagging cold front. For more details on expected severe threats into this evening, see the previous discussion below. ..Leitman.. 06/26/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022/ ...ArkLaMiss to upper OH Valley... Morning surface analysis shows a weak cold front extending from eastern OH into parts of KY/TN and MS/LA. A corridor of rich low-level moisture and strong CAPE lies along the front, where isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms are forecast. Winds aloft along this entire zone are relatively weak. This, combined with poor mid-level lapse rates and weak forcing should keep the overall severe threat quite limited. However, the potential exists for pulse and disorganized multicell storms to produce locally damaging wind gusts today across the MRGL risk area. This threat should diminish quickly after sunset. Refer to MCD #1296 for short-term details on parts of the area. ...AZ... Mostly clear skies and dewpoints in the 50s will yield moderately unstable air mass over much of central and western AZ today. Sufficient mid-level moisture is expected to produce scattered high-based thunderstorms capable of localized gusty/damaging wind gusts. Weak winds aloft should limit convective organization. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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