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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, June 27, 2022

SPC Jun 27, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance suggests that a more prominent blocking regime developing during the middle to latter portion of this week may persist into the July 4th holiday, with a mid-level high becoming centered over the Yukon/Northwest Territories vicinity and mean mid-level troughing to its south closer to and perhaps somewhat inland of the U.S. Pacific coast. Downstream mid-level troughing may become entrenched across much of eastern Canada into the Northeast, with a deep embedded low, emerging from the Canadian Arctic latitudes, gradually turning across the southern Hudson/James Bay vicinity through northern Quebec by the end of the period. In association with this perturbation, surface cyclogenesis may proceed across northwestern Ontario into southern Hudson Bay on Thursday, before occluding with secondary wave development across northern Quebec late this week into the weekend. While a belt of stronger southwesterly deep-layer mean flow may linger across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region on Thursday, destabilization along and ahead of the associated cold front may remain relatively modest due to the lack of more substantive low-level moistening. It is appearing more probable that potential for thunderstorm development in peak pre-frontal boundary layer instability may remain mostly north of the international border (near the St. Lawrence Valley) late Friday afternoon, before tending to diminish while advancing southward into Friday evening. Better pre-frontal low-level moistening appears possible by Saturday as the front advances southward into the northern Mid Atlantic and southern New England vicinity. While this could support considerable afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity, more modest deep-layer wind fields and weak mid-level lapse rates may only contribute to an environment marginally supportive of strong to severe gusts. Late next weekend into the July 4th holiday, it is possible that areas with at least some severe weather potential could develop across parts of the West into the northern Great Plains, downstream of the large-scale mid-level troughing. However the predictability of the shorter wavelength perturbations within this regime remains low at this time. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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