SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the Lower
Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley south-southwestward into the
Tennessee Valley this afternoon and early evening. Damaging gusts
are the primary hazard with the stronger storms.
...Lower Great Lakes/Upper OH Valley/TN Valley...
A flattened mid-level ridge will extend across the southern half of
the CONUS as a mid-level shortwave trough moves eastward from the
Upper Midwest into the central Great Lakes late tonight. In the low
levels, a cold front will progress east and southeast across parts
of the Mid South through the OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes during
the period. A relatively moisture-rich airmass will destabilize
during the day ahead of the front with surface dewpoints ranging
from the mid-upper 60s over western NY to the lower 70s in parts of
the OH Valley/Mid South. Recent model guidance indicates the
possibility for storms to redevelop on remnant outflow from late
Saturday night/early morning thunderstorm activity from TN/KY during
the afternoon. Several other broken bands/clusters are forecast to
develop during the afternoon from parts of the OH Valley into the
Lower Great Lakes. Relatively weak deep-layer shear will limit
overall storm organization, but multicells capable of strong to
locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) could yield isolated damaging
winds. This activity will likely diminish during the evening
coincident with diurnal heat loss.
..Smith/Squitieri.. 06/26/2022
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