SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST
MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
Damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be possible through
this evening over parts of northern and central Illinois into
northeast Missouri.
...Mid MS Valley...
Water-vapor imagery shows a flattened mid-level high centered over
AR with the primary belt of westerlies confined to the Upper Midwest
in association with a disturbance over southern Canada. A cold
front over the mid MS Valley will continue to move east/southeast
through tonight. The boundary will aid in focusing storm
development this evening over western IL where a warm/moist airmass
resides. The Lincoln, IL 00z raob was moderately unstable (1500
J/kg MLCAPE) with a vertical wind profile supporting storm
organization. Isolated severe gusts and marginally severe hail will
be possible with the stronger storms through mid evening before this
threat wanes towards midnight.
...Southwest MO into OK and TX Panhandle...
The trailing portion of the front will slowly sag southward this
evening. Storms so far have preferentially developed to the north
of the boundary and this trend will likely continue. Steep
low-level lapse rates (reference 00z Amarillo, TX, Norman, OK, and
Springfield, MO raobs) will support a localized risk for severe
gusts with the stronger downdrafts. The continued threat for
marginally severe hail will likely remain limited through the
remainder of the evening as this activity gradually weakens with the
loss of heating.
..Smith.. 06/26/2022
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