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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, June 25, 2022

SPC Jun 25, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be possible this afternoon/evening, focused in northern Illinois, southeast Iowa, and northeast Missouri. No changes have been made to the previous outlook. ..Hart.. 06/25/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022/ ...IA/IL/MO... A large upper ridge is centered over the lower MS Valley today, with the primary westerlies extending across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Water vapor imagery and model guidance hint at a subtle shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max over northern KS. This feature will track eastward into IA this afternoon, with weak large scale forcing overspreading the mid MS Valley. Parts of IA/MO/IL were affected by overnight and morning convection, but that activity is moving out of the area and will allow strong afternoon heating/destabilization to occur. This will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg over eastern IA/western IL and northeast MO. Thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon along a weak cold front over eastern IA/western IL and build westward into northeast MO. These storms will track southeastward along the instability gradient across parts of central IL and eastern MO during the evening before slowly weakening after dark. Wind fields are relatively weak, but strong buoyancy values and organization into a QLCS will result in a risk of strong/damaging wind gusts. ...KY/TN/AL/FL... Morning surface analysis shows an axis of low-mid 70s dewpoints from the FL Panhandle into much of AL, middle/east TN and eastern KY. Strong heating will aid in the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low and mid level winds are relatively weak, but sufficient upper-level flow, strong CAPE, and favorable low-level lapse rates support a risk of pulse and multicell severe wind events. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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