SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be possible this
afternoon/evening, focused in northern Illinois, southeast Iowa, and
northeast Missouri.
No changes have been made to the previous outlook.
..Hart.. 06/25/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022/
...IA/IL/MO...
A large upper ridge is centered over the lower MS Valley today, with
the primary westerlies extending across the northern Plains into the
Great Lakes. Water vapor imagery and model guidance hint at a
subtle shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max over
northern KS. This feature will track eastward into IA this
afternoon, with weak large scale forcing overspreading the mid MS
Valley. Parts of IA/MO/IL were affected by overnight and morning
convection, but that activity is moving out of the area and will
allow strong afternoon heating/destabilization to occur. This will
yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg over eastern
IA/western IL and northeast MO.
Thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon along a weak cold
front over eastern IA/western IL and build westward into northeast
MO. These storms will track southeastward along the instability
gradient across parts of central IL and eastern MO during the
evening before slowly weakening after dark. Wind fields are
relatively weak, but strong buoyancy values and organization into a
QLCS will result in a risk of strong/damaging wind gusts.
...KY/TN/AL/FL...
Morning surface analysis shows an axis of low-mid 70s dewpoints from
the FL Panhandle into much of AL, middle/east TN and eastern KY.
Strong heating will aid in the development of scattered afternoon
thunderstorms. Low and mid level winds are relatively weak, but
sufficient upper-level flow, strong CAPE, and favorable low-level
lapse rates support a risk of pulse and multicell severe wind
events.
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