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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, June 25, 2022

SPC Jun 25, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Perhaps most notable during this period, models indicate that a deep mid-level low, emerging from the northeastern Canadian Arctic latitudes, will gradually turn southeastward and eastward across the Hudson Bay vicinity. As this occurs, it appears that mid-level flow will trend broadly cyclonic across the Upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes region through the Northeast late next week through the weekend, in the wake of low amplitude ridging building across the region by mid week. Otherwise, a general split flow regime may linger upstream, around persistent mid-level ridging across the western Canadian Provinces and mid-level troughing to the south, generally offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast. At the same time, mid-level ridging may be maintained across much of the central and southern tier of the U.S., near and east of the Rockies. In association with this regime, it appears that a plume of warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air will advect east of the northern Rockies toward the Upper Midwest during the early to middle portion of next week, before becoming cut off and suppressed. This likely will precede the remnants of an initially vigorous short wave impulse migrating inland of the Pacific Northwest coast, before weakening within a confluent regime across the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies. Still, models suggest that this impulse might be accompanied by weak to modest cyclogenesis across the southern Canadian Prairies and adjacent northern U.S. Great Plains, which seems to offer the best potential for organized thunderstorm development (in terms of shear and forcing for ascent) during this period. At this point, the extent of destabilization and degree of inhibition remain unclear, as low-level moisture return from the lower latitudes might remain rather modest. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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