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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, June 18, 2022

SPC Jun 18, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MUCH OF MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated hail and/or damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper ridging is forecast to be in place from the MS Valley into western Ontario early Monday morning, with upper troughing anticipated to its west over the western CONUS and to its east off the East Coast. A shortwave trough is expected to move within the western CONUS upper trough, progressing northeastward across the central Rockies and into the northern Plains. Evolution of this shortwave will encourage the development of an eastward-surging cold front, which is expected to promote thunderstorm development as it interacts with the warm, moist, and strongly unstable air mass over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The stronger flow aloft will lag behind the cold front, but robust buoyancy should still result intense updrafts capable of isolated hail and/or damaging wind gusts. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also possible across the southern High Plains and across the central and southern FL Panhandle. Limited buoyancy should temper updraft intensity across the southern High Plains, while weak shear should promote disorganized, outflow-dominant multicells across FL. ..Mosier.. 06/18/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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