SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MUCH OF MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated hail and/or damaging wind gusts
are possible across portions of northern Plains and Upper Midwest on
Monday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper ridging is forecast to be in place from the MS Valley into
western Ontario early Monday morning, with upper troughing
anticipated to its west over the western CONUS and to its east off
the East Coast. A shortwave trough is expected to move within the
western CONUS upper trough, progressing northeastward across the
central Rockies and into the northern Plains.
Evolution of this shortwave will encourage the development of an
eastward-surging cold front, which is expected to promote
thunderstorm development as it interacts with the warm, moist, and
strongly unstable air mass over the northern Plains and Upper
Midwest. The stronger flow aloft will lag behind the cold front, but
robust buoyancy should still result intense updrafts capable of
isolated hail and/or damaging wind gusts.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also possible across the
southern High Plains and across the central and southern FL
Panhandle. Limited buoyancy should temper updraft intensity across
the southern High Plains, while weak shear should promote
disorganized, outflow-dominant multicells across FL.
..Mosier.. 06/18/2022
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