DarkSky Temps | Gusts | WU KORD Data

CLICK for this month's BIG night sky ...

RADAR FULL MAP SCREEN

NEXRAD

STORMTRACK

Cardinal SAT

CHGOWX.COM



MOBILE DEVICE? Turn sideways. Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Friday, June 17, 2022

SPC Jun 17, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NORTHERN NC... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MT AND NORTHEAST WY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind swaths are expected through about sunset across the central/southern Appalachians to the South/Lower-Mid Atlantic Coast. Isolated significant severe wind gusts are possible across a portion of eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming centered on early evening. Isolated significant severe hail is possible across northwest Montana through tonight. ...20z Update... The main changes to the 20z outlook have been to trim behind ongoing convection from the South to the Mid-Atlantic and New England coast areas. The overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged from the prior outlook, with a swath of damaging wind possible across parts of northern GA into the Carolinas/Virginia through this evening. A small southward adjustment into north-central CO has been made to the Marginal risk area. Strong storms have been noted over higher terrain in Boulder County. This activity is within a similar environment to that further north, and may produce gusty winds and marginally severe hail as cells track toward the northeast. No changes have been made to the Slight and Marginal risk areas across northwest MT/northern ID. ..Leitman.. 06/17/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022/ ...KY/TN to the Lower Mid-Atlantic and Southeast... Remnants of a long-lived MCS continue to move generally east-southeast across portions of KY/TN, with forward propagation driven by renewed updrafts along the large-scale convective outflow. It is plausible that this process will continue all the way to the Atlantic Coast through sunset. More organized cold pool potential will exist from eastern KY to southern VA/northern NC. Here, stronger 700-500 mb westerlies along the southern periphery of a robust mid-level jet over the Northeast will be coupled with the trailing portion of a surface cold front. Otherwise, hot temperatures will support a well-mixed boundary layer with scattered damaging wind swaths from strong to locally severe wind gusts across the Carolinas to GA. ...Northern High Plains... West of the midlevel ridge over the Plains and east of a deep trough near the West Coast, lee trough development is expected across the High Plains. This trough should focus isolated, high-based thunderstorm development during the late afternoon to early evening immediately east of the higher terrain from eastern WY northward into eastern MT. A very warm elevated mixed layer will tend to cap the more moist boundary layer east of the lee trough and along a warm front into eastern MT. This, combined with largely meridional flow aloft, will keep convection close to the trough and higher terrain. Given the very steep low to mid-level lapse rates, a spatiotemporally confined corridor of scattered severe wind gusts with isolated significant severe wind gusts may occur. ...Northwest MT... Along and to the cool side of a quasi-stationary front draped across the northern Rockies, multiple rounds of discrete supercell development are possible during the period. The first will be diurnally focused during the late afternoon to early evening, with perhaps another round overnight as mid-level DCVA increases with approach of the West Coast trough. Strong mid to upper-level speed shear coupled with very steep mid-level lapse rates will support a primary threat of large hail. ...New England... Broken convection is ongoing across ME into western MA, along the eastern edge of surface-based instability. Pockets of greater surface heating are apparent ahead of this activity, mainly from MA to far southwest ME. Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor and forcing for ascent will be modest, which suggests that updrafts will not be particularly robust. However, long, mostly straight hodographs, with effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt could support a few storms with strong/damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/SSNw78