Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that an expansive upper
ridge will be centered over the Mid-South early Tuesday morning. A
shortwave trough is forecast to progress through the northern
periphery of this ridge throughout the day, contributing to some
dampening. The upper ridge is expected to build westward on
D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday, eventually covering much of the
southern third of the CONUS. Enhanced westerly flow is anticipated
north of this upper ridge, in the vicinity of the international
border. Low-amplitude shortwave troughs will likely progress through
this enhanced flow, potentially interacting with a moist and buoyant
air mass to promote thunderstorms. However, given the large-scale
pattern, predictability of these subtle waves as well as the quality
of the low-level moisture and buoyancy is low, limiting forecast
confidence.
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