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Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Tabs under Moon Phases refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for SPC Convective outlook are updated daily with a live map a the beginning of the article. Touch or click map to get possible update, and follow link at end of article for referral to NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data were updated 24-48 hours after end of each day prior to Dec. 2020.

Saturday, June 18, 2022

SPC Jun 18, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that an expansive upper ridge will be centered over the Mid-South early Tuesday morning. A shortwave trough is forecast to progress through the northern periphery of this ridge throughout the day, contributing to some dampening. The upper ridge is expected to build westward on D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday, eventually covering much of the southern third of the CONUS. Enhanced westerly flow is anticipated north of this upper ridge, in the vicinity of the international border. Low-amplitude shortwave troughs will likely progress through this enhanced flow, potentially interacting with a moist and buoyant air mass to promote thunderstorms. However, given the large-scale pattern, predictability of these subtle waves as well as the quality of the low-level moisture and buoyancy is low, limiting forecast confidence. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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