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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Thursday, June 16, 2022

SPC Jun 16, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley this afternoon/evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a few tornadoes can be expected. Strong/severe thunderstorms with hail/wind will also develop across portions of the central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley region. Isolated strong storms will also continue across the Gulf Coast states. ...Discussion... Only minor line adjustments appear necessary with this outlook update, as severe storms continue to evolve as expected from the Lake Ontario vicinity to central Ohio on western fringes of the ENH outlook, from central Maryland to northwestern Georgia through the southern extension of the SLGT risk, and across portions of the central Gulf Coast area/lower Mississippi Valley within the MRGL risk area. Meanwhile, storm development remains likely across the Mid Missouri Valley area, and then spreading east-southeastward across the Lower Missouri Valley this evening/overnight. ..Goss.. 06/16/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... An active severe-weather day is expected across the region, with essentially all convective modes/hazards possible. Steady large-scale height falls, along with a strengthening of cyclonically curved westerlies, will occur via the approach of the upstream trough over Ontario. Upstream regional 12z soundings/upper-air data sampled 50+ kt mid-level winds early this morning over Lower Michigan into Illinois (and likely Indiana). A very moist and potentially unstable air mass is in place across the Northeast, where daytime highs well into the 80s F and dewpoints near 70F will yield MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg with little capping inversion. General thinking remains that thunderstorms will form this afternoon along an approaching cold front, initially from western/northern New York into northwest Pennsylvania into eastern/central Ohio, with additional development possible within the warm sector in vicinity of the mountains and/or lee trough. Low-level winds are not forecast to be particularly strong, but favorable deep-layer shear and degree of instability suggest that discrete supercells will be possible, capable of very large hail and possibly a few tornadoes. This activity will spread east/southeastward during the afternoon/evening especially across the Enhanced Risk area that includes much of New York and Pennsylvania. Upscale growth into short bowing segments can be expected as storms spread toward additional parts of the Mid-Atlantic this evening, although a more stable air mass will likely persist for coastal areas. ...Central Appalachians/Carolinas... On the eastern periphery of the Tennessee Valley-centered upper ridge, mid-level temperatures have cooled since yesterday, by as much as 1-2.5C at 700 mb over the past 24 hours as per 12z observed soundings from KRNK/KGSO. This should result in a more active day for thunderstorms across the region including the potential for pulse-type downbursts capable of localized wind damage. A gradual clustering/modest organization of storms could occur, pending sufficient storm development, aided by a modestly enhanced belt of northwesterly mid-level winds, which are noted on the northeast periphery of the upper ridge. Several convection-allowing models (such as NSSL-ARW and NAM 3km) lend credence to this possibility. ...Parts of Nebraska/Kansas into Missouri/Illinois... A cold front will sag southward across the Midwest, while the front remains quasi-stationary from western/northern Kansas into northern Missouri. A northward-building upper ridge (centered over the Mid-South) will influence additional capping and likely limit deep convective development during the day. The most likely scenario is for storms to develop/increase this evening into the overnight along/north of the boundary as the low-level jet strengthens. Large hail would be the main threat initially, but damaging wind potential may also emerge, particularly as storm mergers occur and storms tend to grow upscale. ...Gulf Coast States... Although probably not as widespread as across Alabama/Georgia late yesterday afternoon into evening, west/southwest-moving afternoon and early evening thunderstorms are again expected from the Florida Panhandle westward into parts of Mississippi/Louisiana. Hot and humid conditions with temperatures in the mid/upper 90s and large CAPE values will promote damaging wind gusts in the stronger cores. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC