Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper ridge will likely remain prominent over much of
the Plains and MS Valley from Day 4/Sunday into early next week. A
highly amplified upper trough/low centered over the western CONUS
should advance slowly east-northeastward across the northern
Rockies/Plains and central Canada in the same time frame. Sufficient
low-level moisture return and related instability may be present
across parts of the northern Plains to support some severe threat on
Day 4/Sunday. However, there are still enough differences in model
guidance regarding thunderstorm coverage and placement to limit
confidence in a focused area of greater severe potential.
As the upper trough continues eastward across central Canada and the
north-central states, an isolated severe risk may exist across parts
of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest from Day 5/Monday into
Day 6/Tuesday. However, based on differences in the placement of the
upper trough and related surface features in the latest medium-range
guidance, it is unclear which day may have a greater severe
potential. There are some indications that a severe risk may persist
across parts of the Great Lakes into the Northeast by the middle of
next week, and perhaps the northern Plains as well, as the upper
ridge becomes suppressed and mid-level flow becomes increasingly
zonal across the northern tier of the CONUS. However, predictability
remains low at this extended time frame.
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