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Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Tabs under Moon Phases refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for SPC Convective outlook are updated daily with a live map a the beginning of the article. Touch or click map to get possible update, and follow link at end of article for referral to NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data were updated 24-48 hours after end of each day prior to Dec. 2020.

Thursday, June 16, 2022

SPC Jun 16, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper ridge will likely remain prominent over much of the Plains and MS Valley from Day 4/Sunday into early next week. A highly amplified upper trough/low centered over the western CONUS should advance slowly east-northeastward across the northern Rockies/Plains and central Canada in the same time frame. Sufficient low-level moisture return and related instability may be present across parts of the northern Plains to support some severe threat on Day 4/Sunday. However, there are still enough differences in model guidance regarding thunderstorm coverage and placement to limit confidence in a focused area of greater severe potential. As the upper trough continues eastward across central Canada and the north-central states, an isolated severe risk may exist across parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest from Day 5/Monday into Day 6/Tuesday. However, based on differences in the placement of the upper trough and related surface features in the latest medium-range guidance, it is unclear which day may have a greater severe potential. There are some indications that a severe risk may persist across parts of the Great Lakes into the Northeast by the middle of next week, and perhaps the northern Plains as well, as the upper ridge becomes suppressed and mid-level flow becomes increasingly zonal across the northern tier of the CONUS. However, predictability remains low at this extended time frame. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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