SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across
parts of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains.
...Northern Rockies/Plains...
A large-scale upper trough/low over the West Coast should move very
slowly eastward across the western states on Saturday. Strong
mid-level southerly flow associated with this feature will be
present over parts of the northern Rockies and High Plains through
the period. Although low-level moisture will likely remain limited,
diurnal heating and relatively cool mid-level temperatures should
allow for weak instability to develop by late Saturday afternoon.
The forecast combination of weak instability and strong deep-layer
shear may allow for modest updraft organization with any
thunderstorms that can form. At this point, it appears that
high-based convection will initially develop over the higher terrain
of north-central ID and spread into parts of western/northern MT
through Saturday evening. Some hail and occasional severe wind gusts
may occur with the strongest cores, but the limited instability
should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated.
...Southeast...
Moderate to strong instability should develop through Saturday
afternoon along/south of a front. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms should develop across parts of the Southeast, perhaps
focused along the front and various sea breeze boundaries. Even
though ample instability should be present, deep-layer shear is
expected to remain quite weak. Still, isolated strong/gusty winds
may occur with pulse convection. But, at this point the potential
for organized severe convection appears too limited to include low
severe probabilities.
..Gleason.. 06/16/2022
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