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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Thursday, June 16, 2022

SPC Jun 16, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across parts of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. ...Northern Rockies/Plains... A large-scale upper trough/low over the West Coast should move very slowly eastward across the western states on Saturday. Strong mid-level southerly flow associated with this feature will be present over parts of the northern Rockies and High Plains through the period. Although low-level moisture will likely remain limited, diurnal heating and relatively cool mid-level temperatures should allow for weak instability to develop by late Saturday afternoon. The forecast combination of weak instability and strong deep-layer shear may allow for modest updraft organization with any thunderstorms that can form. At this point, it appears that high-based convection will initially develop over the higher terrain of north-central ID and spread into parts of western/northern MT through Saturday evening. Some hail and occasional severe wind gusts may occur with the strongest cores, but the limited instability should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated. ...Southeast... Moderate to strong instability should develop through Saturday afternoon along/south of a front. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop across parts of the Southeast, perhaps focused along the front and various sea breeze boundaries. Even though ample instability should be present, deep-layer shear is expected to remain quite weak. Still, isolated strong/gusty winds may occur with pulse convection. But, at this point the potential for organized severe convection appears too limited to include low severe probabilities. ..Gleason.. 06/16/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC