SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...VIRGINIA...AND
CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across
parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians,
Virginia, and Carolinas.
...Lower Ohio Valley into the Central Appalachians, Virginia, and
Carolinas...
Some guidance suggests that a small cluster of thunderstorms may be
ongoing Friday morning across parts of the mid MS Valley into the
lower OH Valley. There appears to be some potential for this cluster
to continue southeastward through the day into the central
Appalachians, and perhaps parts of VA/NC/SC by late Friday
afternoon. This region will be sandwiched between an upper ridge
centered over the Southeast and much of the Plains, and an upper
trough over eastern Canada into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.
Modestly enhanced mid-level northwesterly flow may aid continued
thunderstorm organization as it spreads southeastward. Most guidance
indicates that moderate to strong instability will develop ahead of
this activity. Isolated damaging winds and hail may occur with any
convection that can persist through the day, or develop across the
warm sector. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding
overall thunderstorm coverage and placement across these regions, so
have opted to include a broad Marginal Risk for now.
...New England...
Modest low-level moisture should be in place ahead of a cold front
across parts of New England Friday morning. There are differences in
latest global guidance regarding the placement of the front and
quality of the low-level moisture. Have leaned towards the 00Z
GFS/ECMWF frontal position and timing, which suggest that a faster
progression of the front Friday morning/afternoon should tend to
limit instability and the overall severe threat across
southern/eastern New England. If the slower 00Z NAM solution is
correct, then some severe risk would exist across this area. Will
defer possible inclusion of low severe probabilities until better
model agreement is realized.
..Gleason.. 06/15/2022
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