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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Wednesday, June 15, 2022

SPC Jun 15, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...VIRGINIA...AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians, Virginia, and Carolinas. ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Central Appalachians, Virginia, and Carolinas... Some guidance suggests that a small cluster of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of the mid MS Valley into the lower OH Valley. There appears to be some potential for this cluster to continue southeastward through the day into the central Appalachians, and perhaps parts of VA/NC/SC by late Friday afternoon. This region will be sandwiched between an upper ridge centered over the Southeast and much of the Plains, and an upper trough over eastern Canada into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Modestly enhanced mid-level northwesterly flow may aid continued thunderstorm organization as it spreads southeastward. Most guidance indicates that moderate to strong instability will develop ahead of this activity. Isolated damaging winds and hail may occur with any convection that can persist through the day, or develop across the warm sector. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding overall thunderstorm coverage and placement across these regions, so have opted to include a broad Marginal Risk for now. ...New England... Modest low-level moisture should be in place ahead of a cold front across parts of New England Friday morning. There are differences in latest global guidance regarding the placement of the front and quality of the low-level moisture. Have leaned towards the 00Z GFS/ECMWF frontal position and timing, which suggest that a faster progression of the front Friday morning/afternoon should tend to limit instability and the overall severe threat across southern/eastern New England. If the slower 00Z NAM solution is correct, then some severe risk would exist across this area. Will defer possible inclusion of low severe probabilities until better model agreement is realized. ..Gleason.. 06/15/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC