Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance remains in good agreement that a highly
amplified upper ridge will remain over much of the central CONUS and
Canada this upcoming weekend while moving slowly eastward. Across
the western states, an elongated upper trough should also advance
slowly eastward, reaching the northern/central Rockies and adjacent
High Plains by Day 6/Monday. Low-level moisture will attempt to
return northward across parts of the northern Plains from Day
4/Saturday into Day 5/Sunday. However, a stout cap will probably
limit overall thunderstorm coverage, and confidence that severe
convection will form in this time frame remains low.
The upper trough should eject across the northern Plains into
central Canada around Day 6/Monday into Day 7/Tuesday. Depending on
the track of this feature and the quality of low-level moisture
return, some severe threat may exist across parts of the northern
Plains into the Upper Midwest early next week. However, too much
uncertainty currently exists in the placement/evolution of the upper
trough and related surface features to include severe probabilities
at this extended time frame.
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