SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022
Valid 142000Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S....PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY
VICINITY...AND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight across
parts of the Upper Midwest and central Plains/Middle Missouri Valley
as well as the Southeast.
...Discussion...
While much of the outlook and prior forecast reasoning remains in
line with current evolution and expectations, an adjustment to the
outlook across the Virginia/North Carolina area is being made for
this update. It appears that severe/convective potential has
diminished markedly across this area, warranting removal of SLGT
risk, and confining the MRGL risk area to southeastern Virginia and
eastern North Carolina.
Elsewhere, only relatively minor line tweaks/adjustments appear
necessary.
..Goss.. 06/14/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022/
...North Dakota/Northern Minnesota...
In the wake of early morning storms that have crossed the
international border, focus turns to the potential for at least some
severe potential in vicinity of a surface low/warm front-related
triple point later this afternoon into evening. Steady mid-level
warming will be occurring into the region the remainder of the day,
which casts some cap-related uncertainty on the likelihood and
extent of deep convective development later today. But at the very
least, a conditional supercell potential will exist mainly across
northern Minnesota, which could include all hazards, at least on an
isolated basis. Have made corresponding eastward outlook adjustments
to account for this potential.
...Nebraska/Iowa/southern Minnesota...
A cold front is sagging southeastward across parts of the central
Dakotas. This boundary is expected to stall over Nebraska/Iowa,
providing a focus for late afternoon thunderstorm development.
Initial activity will likely be supercellular, but will move
northward into the cooler boundary layer air and be slightly
elevated. Nevertheless, large hail and locally damaging winds are
possible. By mid-evening, storms are expected to be rather
widespread along the boundary, with an increasing risk of locally
damaging wind gusts.
...Southeast/Mid-Atlantic States...
The remnants of multiple MCSs and resultant MCVs will continue to
influence the region on the eastern periphery of a Tennessee
Valley/southern Appalachians-centered upper ridge. The includes an
upscale-growing cluster of storms across Georgia/central South
Carolina early this evening, where an increasing surface cold pool
is present. Modest enhanced mid-level winds (likely MCV aided) will
contribute to some measure of organization as clusters of storms
move south-southwestward across the region with damaging wind gusts
a possibility.
Additional storms capable of damaging winds/some hail will also
likely persist/semi-focus this afternoon across parts of West
Virginia/Virginia into North Carolina, with the westernmost storms
having access to a greater reservoir of instability.
...Upper Ohio River Valley...
A couple of strong/locally severe elevated storms could develop at
the very end of the period (roughly 10-12z) with aid of a glancing
warm advection regime. However, scenario appears too marginal and
temporally confined and, as such, severe probabilities have not been
introduced at this time.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/SSBvJp
