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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, June 14, 2022

SPC Jun 14, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S....PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY VICINITY...AND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest and central Plains/Middle Missouri Valley as well as the Southeast. ...Discussion... While much of the outlook and prior forecast reasoning remains in line with current evolution and expectations, an adjustment to the outlook across the Virginia/North Carolina area is being made for this update. It appears that severe/convective potential has diminished markedly across this area, warranting removal of SLGT risk, and confining the MRGL risk area to southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina. Elsewhere, only relatively minor line tweaks/adjustments appear necessary. ..Goss.. 06/14/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022/ ...North Dakota/Northern Minnesota... In the wake of early morning storms that have crossed the international border, focus turns to the potential for at least some severe potential in vicinity of a surface low/warm front-related triple point later this afternoon into evening. Steady mid-level warming will be occurring into the region the remainder of the day, which casts some cap-related uncertainty on the likelihood and extent of deep convective development later today. But at the very least, a conditional supercell potential will exist mainly across northern Minnesota, which could include all hazards, at least on an isolated basis. Have made corresponding eastward outlook adjustments to account for this potential. ...Nebraska/Iowa/southern Minnesota... A cold front is sagging southeastward across parts of the central Dakotas. This boundary is expected to stall over Nebraska/Iowa, providing a focus for late afternoon thunderstorm development. Initial activity will likely be supercellular, but will move northward into the cooler boundary layer air and be slightly elevated. Nevertheless, large hail and locally damaging winds are possible. By mid-evening, storms are expected to be rather widespread along the boundary, with an increasing risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ...Southeast/Mid-Atlantic States... The remnants of multiple MCSs and resultant MCVs will continue to influence the region on the eastern periphery of a Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians-centered upper ridge. The includes an upscale-growing cluster of storms across Georgia/central South Carolina early this evening, where an increasing surface cold pool is present. Modest enhanced mid-level winds (likely MCV aided) will contribute to some measure of organization as clusters of storms move south-southwestward across the region with damaging wind gusts a possibility. Additional storms capable of damaging winds/some hail will also likely persist/semi-focus this afternoon across parts of West Virginia/Virginia into North Carolina, with the westernmost storms having access to a greater reservoir of instability. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... A couple of strong/locally severe elevated storms could develop at the very end of the period (roughly 10-12z) with aid of a glancing warm advection regime. However, scenario appears too marginal and temporally confined and, as such, severe probabilities have not been introduced at this time. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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