Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper ridge should amplify over much of the central
CONUS into central Canada from Day 4/Friday through the upcoming
weekend. An upper trough and related surface cold front moving
quickly eastward should shunt rich low-level moisture off much of
the East Coast on Friday. Weak instability in the wake of this front
should tend to limit potential for organized severe convection
across much of the central/eastern CONUS. A highly amplified upper
trough/low is forecast to move slowly eastward over the western
states this weekend. It appears that any meaningful severe potential
in this time frame should be confined to parts of the northern
Rockies and adjacent High Plains. But, limited confidence in
thunderstorm development/coverage precludes any severe probabilities
for Day 5/Saturday and Day 6/Sunday.
Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that the
western CONUS upper trough/low should eject northeastward across the
northern Rockies/Plains and perhaps Upper Midwest early next week.
If sufficient low-level moisture return can occur ahead of this
feature, then some severe risk may materialize across parts of these
regions on Day 7/Monday into Day 8/Tuesday. Regardless,
predictability remains too low at this extended time frame to
include a 15% severe area.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/SS906b
