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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, June 14, 2022

SPC Jun 14, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper ridge should amplify over much of the central CONUS into central Canada from Day 4/Friday through the upcoming weekend. An upper trough and related surface cold front moving quickly eastward should shunt rich low-level moisture off much of the East Coast on Friday. Weak instability in the wake of this front should tend to limit potential for organized severe convection across much of the central/eastern CONUS. A highly amplified upper trough/low is forecast to move slowly eastward over the western states this weekend. It appears that any meaningful severe potential in this time frame should be confined to parts of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. But, limited confidence in thunderstorm development/coverage precludes any severe probabilities for Day 5/Saturday and Day 6/Sunday. Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that the western CONUS upper trough/low should eject northeastward across the northern Rockies/Plains and perhaps Upper Midwest early next week. If sufficient low-level moisture return can occur ahead of this feature, then some severe risk may materialize across parts of these regions on Day 7/Monday into Day 8/Tuesday. Regardless, predictability remains too low at this extended time frame to include a 15% severe area. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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