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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Tuesday, June 14, 2022

SPC Jun 14, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW YORK INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Thursday across parts of the Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley. ...New York into the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread parts of western/central NY into the Mid-Atlantic and OH Valley on Thursday ahead of an upper trough/low. Rich low-level moisture should be present across these regions ahead of a surface front/trough. Moderate to locally strong instability should develop through Thursday afternoon in a fairly narrow corridor. The strengthening mid-level flow should foster enough deep-layer shear to support organized severe thunderstorms. Current expectations are for convection to gradually increase in coverage and intensity through the day, with the surface front providing a focus for low-level convergence and lift. Shear appears strong enough to support a mix of multicell clusters and perhaps some supercells. Both damaging winds and severe hail may occur with this convection as it spreads east-southeastward through Thursday evening. Low-level shear may also be strong enough to support a couple of tornadoes if any supercells can persist. These thunderstorms should eventually weaken with eastward extent into NY and the Mid-Atlantic, as a much less unstable airmass should be present farther east. ...Central Plains... A weak front should be draped across parts of the central Plains into MO on Thursday. Robust diurnal heating of a very moist low-level airmass along/near this boundary should support the development of very strong instability by late Thursday afternoon. This region will generally be under the influence of an upper ridge, with corresponding weak/minimal forcing aloft. Still, most global guidance suggests some convection may develop along/near the boundary across parts of northern KS/southern NE and northwestern MO by Thursday evening. If thunderstorms do form, forecast very strong instability and modest deep-layer shear would potentially support an isolated threat for both large hail and severe wind gusts. ..Gleason.. 06/14/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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