SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEW YORK INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Thursday
across parts of the Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley.
...New York into the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley...
Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread parts of
western/central NY into the Mid-Atlantic and OH Valley on Thursday
ahead of an upper trough/low. Rich low-level moisture should be
present across these regions ahead of a surface front/trough.
Moderate to locally strong instability should develop through
Thursday afternoon in a fairly narrow corridor. The strengthening
mid-level flow should foster enough deep-layer shear to support
organized severe thunderstorms. Current expectations are for
convection to gradually increase in coverage and intensity through
the day, with the surface front providing a focus for low-level
convergence and lift. Shear appears strong enough to support a mix
of multicell clusters and perhaps some supercells. Both damaging
winds and severe hail may occur with this convection as it spreads
east-southeastward through Thursday evening. Low-level shear may
also be strong enough to support a couple of tornadoes if any
supercells can persist. These thunderstorms should eventually weaken
with eastward extent into NY and the Mid-Atlantic, as a much less
unstable airmass should be present farther east.
...Central Plains...
A weak front should be draped across parts of the central Plains
into MO on Thursday. Robust diurnal heating of a very moist
low-level airmass along/near this boundary should support the
development of very strong instability by late Thursday afternoon.
This region will generally be under the influence of an upper ridge,
with corresponding weak/minimal forcing aloft. Still, most global
guidance suggests some convection may develop along/near the
boundary across parts of northern KS/southern NE and northwestern MO
by Thursday evening. If thunderstorms do form, forecast very strong
instability and modest deep-layer shear would potentially support an
isolated threat for both large hail and severe wind gusts.
..Gleason.. 06/14/2022
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