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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

ARLINGTON HEIGHTS WEATHER

Tuesday, June 14, 2022

SPC Jun 14, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW YORK INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Thursday across parts of the Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley. ...New York into the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley... Enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread parts of western/central NY into the Mid-Atlantic and OH Valley on Thursday ahead of an upper trough/low. Rich low-level moisture should be present across these regions ahead of a surface front/trough. Moderate to locally strong instability should develop through Thursday afternoon in a fairly narrow corridor. The strengthening mid-level flow should foster enough deep-layer shear to support organized severe thunderstorms. Current expectations are for convection to gradually increase in coverage and intensity through the day, with the surface front providing a focus for low-level convergence and lift. Shear appears strong enough to support a mix of multicell clusters and perhaps some supercells. Both damaging winds and severe hail may occur with this convection as it spreads east-southeastward through Thursday evening. Low-level shear may also be strong enough to support a couple of tornadoes if any supercells can persist. These thunderstorms should eventually weaken with eastward extent into NY and the Mid-Atlantic, as a much less unstable airmass should be present farther east. ...Central Plains... A weak front should be draped across parts of the central Plains into MO on Thursday. Robust diurnal heating of a very moist low-level airmass along/near this boundary should support the development of very strong instability by late Thursday afternoon. This region will generally be under the influence of an upper ridge, with corresponding weak/minimal forcing aloft. Still, most global guidance suggests some convection may develop along/near the boundary across parts of northern KS/southern NE and northwestern MO by Thursday evening. If thunderstorms do form, forecast very strong instability and modest deep-layer shear would potentially support an isolated threat for both large hail and severe wind gusts. ..Gleason.. 06/14/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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