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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, May 8, 2022

SPC May 8, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun May 08 2022 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... The medium-range period appears likely to be characterized overall by the eastward advance of a formerly quasi-stationary trough over the West. Global models are in reasonable agreement through the middle stages of the period, before more substantial differences in solutions emerge late in the period. On Day 4/Wednesday, the trough is progged to begin its initial eastward advance, though is expected to remain over the Intermountain West while ridging persists over the Plains and Midwest. Some severe weather will be possible over the north-central U.S., but likely elevated/north of a warm front for the most part. Limited severe risk may also occur across western portions of the central and southern Plains, as the onset of weak height falls begins. However, confidence remains too low in either of these areas to introduce a 15% area at this time. Severe risk becomes more apparent Day 5/Thursday, across the north-central CONUS. As the western U.S. trough shifts northeastward across the central High Plains toward the northern Plains into the afternoon, models indicate the feature acquiring negative tilt with time -- supporting fairly substantial northern Plains cyclogenesis. Models differ with strength of the upper system, and as such, location of the surface low and associated warm and cold frontal progression. Still, confidence is high enough to include a broad 15% risk area to cover what appears at this time to be the envelope of greatest risk. Given several days of low-level moist advection beneath steep lapse rates aloft, and the increase in deep-layer flow that will accompany the advance of the upper system, potential for supercells -- and an all-hazards severe risk -- seems a reasonable bet from afternoon into the overnight hours. Some severe weather will likely continue Day 6/Friday, however the upper system is forecast to shift northward into the Canadian Prairie, with some weakening of the trailing front which should stretch from the Upper Mississippi Valley into to Oklahoma/Texas. Uncertainty regarding frontal strength/location, partially affected by lingering convective effects/outflow, precludes any areal highlights for Day 6 at this time. Uncertainty increases for Day 7/Saturday, as models forecast that a short-wave trough will rotate southeastward out of Canada and across the Plains on the southern periphery of the initial low/trough still shifting northward across the Prairie provinces. The location/progression of this short-wave feature varies according to different model solutions, and therefore similar variance exists with surface boundary position. While some severe risk will likely evolve within a broad zone that extends roughly along the Mississippi Valley, too much uncertainty is evident to highlight a risk area at this time. Finally, model differences which increase through Day 7 into Day 8/Sunday, with predictability too low to allow a reasonable assessment of convective potential. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)