SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sun May 08 2022
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms may evolve across portions of western Texas late
in the day Tuesday, accompanied by hail/wind risk.
...Synopsis...
While an upper low lingers just off the East Coast, a persistent
trough will remain over the West through the period. In between,
ridging will expand slightly westward across the Plains with time,
thus broadening a bit to include much of the central states and
Midwest.
At the surface, a baroclinic zone bisecting the Plains will remain
the primary feature of interest, extending from the Great Lakes to
the Desert Southwest through the period.
...Parts of the western Texas vicinity...
Capping at the base of an elevated mixed layer will persist across
much of the central U.S. -- supported in most areas by large-scale
subsidence associated with the expanding central U.S. upper ridge.
However, models continue to hint that a subtle vort max will shift
northeastward out of northwestern Mexico toward the southern High
Plains. Weak ascent -- combined with diurnal heating/mixing -- may
be sufficient locally to allow isolated storm development to occur
over western portions of Texas late in the day. With ample CAPE
within the steep-lapse-rate layer above the cap, storms would
quickly grow/intensify, aided by modestly increasing/veering flow
with height. As such, risk for locally damaging wind gusts, and
large hail, would be possible with a couple of the most organized
cells, before convection diminishes during the evening as the cap
becomes re-established.
..Goss.. 05/08/2022
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