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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, May 8, 2022

SPC May 8, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun May 08 2022 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may evolve across portions of western Texas late in the day Tuesday, accompanied by hail/wind risk. ...Synopsis... While an upper low lingers just off the East Coast, a persistent trough will remain over the West through the period. In between, ridging will expand slightly westward across the Plains with time, thus broadening a bit to include much of the central states and Midwest. At the surface, a baroclinic zone bisecting the Plains will remain the primary feature of interest, extending from the Great Lakes to the Desert Southwest through the period. ...Parts of the western Texas vicinity... Capping at the base of an elevated mixed layer will persist across much of the central U.S. -- supported in most areas by large-scale subsidence associated with the expanding central U.S. upper ridge. However, models continue to hint that a subtle vort max will shift northeastward out of northwestern Mexico toward the southern High Plains. Weak ascent -- combined with diurnal heating/mixing -- may be sufficient locally to allow isolated storm development to occur over western portions of Texas late in the day. With ample CAPE within the steep-lapse-rate layer above the cap, storms would quickly grow/intensify, aided by modestly increasing/veering flow with height. As such, risk for locally damaging wind gusts, and large hail, would be possible with a couple of the most organized cells, before convection diminishes during the evening as the cap becomes re-established. ..Goss.. 05/08/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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